https://www.designnews.com/content/opinion-how-toyota-s-evs-may-save-company/177750686660988
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Toyota has finally committed to building a range of electric vehicles
(EVs)—but is it too late?
By: Kevin Clemens
Electric & Hybrid Vehicle Technology Expo – Novi, MI
Battery/Energy Storage, Automotive, Alternative Energy, Electronics &
Test
June 17, 2019
Citing a “sudden surge” in electric vehicle (EV) popularity, Toyota
Executive Vice President and head of R&D, Shigeki Terashi, announced the
company’s new EV development plans to sell 5.5 million traditional
gasoline-electric hybrids, plug-in hybrids, EVs and hydrogen fuel cell
vehicles by 2025. This is five years earlier than the 2030 deadline that
had been announced in 2017. "Progress has surpassed the target," Terashi
said. "We have entered a new age." The R&D chief made his remarks on an
hour-long company online broadcast on June 7.
[Photo] Toyota has suddenly embraced EVs in a big way, showing a range
of new vehicle concepts that it says represent the company’s near future
product line. (Image source: Toyota)
Late to the Game
Some might say it’s about time. After having introduced the
gasoline-electric Prius hybrid in 1997, Toyota has steadfastly placed
its bets on hybrid designs, and more recently hydrogen fuel cells. While
these technologies use electric motors for propulsion, giving the
company engineering experience in part of the EV equation, the
electricity to power those motors comes from sources other than
batteries. It turns out that building battery packs that are robust,
safe, and that can store significant energy is quite a challenge and
Toyota has also announced it will work with Chinese battery giant CATL
to provide some of its battery systems.
That Toyota is accelerating its EV development plans makes
sense—stringent exhaust emission regulations and the prospects of
outright bans of fossil fuel vehicles in Europe and China are forcing
the company into the move. Unlike most other carmakers who have already
gone into production with joint-venture partners to build EVs in China
for the Chinese market, Toyota will only begin making battery electrics
for that market in 2020. Toyota has partnerships with Chinese companies
GAC and FWA to build vehicles in China and each company will produce its
own version of the Toyota battery electric. Toyota plans to release at
least 10 battery-only electric vehicles worldwide by the early 2020s.
Playing Well With Others
Earlier in the same week, Toyota announced an agreement with Subaru to
jointly develop a battery electric platform that would work for both
midsize and large vehicles, and that would be used for a jointly
developed crossover EV. Each brand will sell that vehicle separately,
beginning with the US market as its main target.
"To respond with a sense of speed to the diversifying needs of these
markets and to multiple challenges, both Subaru and Toyota believe that
it is necessary to pursue a business model that goes beyond convention,
crossing over industrial boundaries together with various types of other
entities that share their aspirations," Toyota said in a statement. "As
a first step in this direction, the two companies will jointly develop a
BEV-dedicated platform. The platform will be developed in a way that
will make it broadly applicable to multiple vehicle types, including
C-segment-class and D-segment-class sedans and SUVs, as well as to
efficient development of derivative vehicle models."
Toyota is also working with Suzuki and Daihatsu to develop compact EVs
for the Asian and world markets.
To build a range of vehicles, Toyota will use its e-TNGA, an EV version
of the company's new-generation Toyota New Global Architecture modular
platform. The new platform will provide six vehicle variations in all,
including a large SUV, a medium SUV, a medium crossover, a medium
minivan, a medium sedan and the compact.
Solid Progress
Despite appearing to arrive late to the EV game, Toyota might just have
an ace up its sleeve. Present commercial lithium ion batteries employ a
liquid electrolyte that allows the transfer of lithium ions between the
positive (cathode) and negative (anode) electrodes. This liquid consists
of organic solvents that are flammable and also don’t prevent the
formation of spikey dendritic crystals of lithium when charged under the
wrong conditions.
The Holy Grail of battery technology is the replacement of that liquid
electrolyte with a solid ceramic or polymer material. In theory such
solid-state batteries will be more powerful and less prone to fires.
Toyota has been working on this technology for several years and claims
to be nearly ready to unveil a solid-state battery with a polymer
electrolyte—perhaps ahead of the 2020 Summer Olympic Games in Tokyo. "If
possible, by the time we have the Olympic Games next year, we would like
to make sure that a solid-state battery can be unveiled to the public,"
Terashi said.
Too Little, Or Genius Marketing?
So, is Toyota finally getting serious about building battery-powered
electric vehicles? For China, Asia, and parts of Europe, the types of
small urban EVs that company has shown will find ready markets that are
already filled with established competition. EV sales in the US, already
lackluster, have shown a softening throughout the first part of this
year. The majority of EVs available in the US are small sedans—exactly
the kind of vehicles that US buyers are abandoning.
For the US market, with its emphasis on pickup trucks, SUVs and cross
over utilities, the real danger is that the EV venture with Subaru might
be insufficient to establish any sort of beachhead for Toyota. This will
be particularly true in the next couple years with new electric pickup
trucks from Rivian, Ford and GM, along with Tesla’s new electric pickup
truck and Roadster sports car sucking up all of the EV media attention.
Add in new offerings from Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche, and just about
every other carmaker with a pulse, and until and unless the company
produces a range of EVs for the US, Toyota’s battle looks to be mostly
uphill. At least the first EV from the Toyota/Subaru combo will be a
crossover…that should help.
The stakes are high—and not just in building vehicles. Toyota is looking
at a future mobility business that includes sales, leasing,
ride-sharing, transportation as a service, used car sales, battery
reuse, and recycling. "Once those become viable, he BEV business will
become viable, even if the battery price remains quite high," Terashi
said. "Unless we work on this at a very accelerated manner, we will not
be able to ensure our future survival."
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Senior Editor Kevin Clemens has been writing about energy, automotive,
and transportation topics for more than 30 years. He has masters degrees
in Materials Engineering and Environmental Education and a doctorate
degree in Mechanical Engineering, specializing in aerodynamics. He has
set several w
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