One thing led to this Tesla Model 3 auto sales. Problem is there is still a problem driving any of these cars on a trip. Nowhere to charge it.
Sent from my iPhone > On Jun 20, 2019, at 7:24 AM, moskowitz via EV <[email protected]> wrote: > > https://www.designnews.com/electronics-test/mainstream-automakers-embark-on-big-move-battery-electrics/94422093060984 > ----- > > Mainstream Automakers Embark on the Big Move to Battery-Electrics > > Despite anemic sales and despite losing money on every battery-electric > vehicle they sell, mainstream automakers are forging ahead. Here’s why, and > here’s what’s needed for them to be successful. > > By: [Charles Murray](https://www.designnews.com/author/charles-murray) > > [Electronics & Test](https://www.designnews.com/electronics-test) > > [Automotive](https://www.designnews.com/automotive-0) > > June 18, 2019 > > [Photo] Later this year, Ford is expected to unveil a Mustang-inspired > crossover with an all-electric range of 300-plus miles. (Image source: Ford > Motor Co.) > > After more than a century of rejecting battery-powered cars, mainstream > automakers are finally changing their minds. > > This year, they’re debuting some of the best battery-electric vehicles (BEV) > in their history. The cars are big and visually appealing; feature long-range > batteries; and come in popular form factors – crossovers and SUVs. In short, > they’re built to sell. And their underlying message is clear: These aren’t > your regulator’s electric cars. > > Moreover, the new breed of battery-electrics is being developed by some of > the global industry’s most established, mainstream names. In the first half > of 2019 alone, Audi, Hyundai, Jaguar, Kia, and Nissan debuted new BEVs with > 200-plus-mile ranges. Later this year, Porsche will deliver a 600-HP, > all-electric luxury vehicle. And Ford Motor Co. will reveal an electric, > Mustang-inspired crossover that Ford chairman William Clay Ford has said will > “go like hell.” > > And the trend will extend well beyond 2019. General Motors has said it will > introduce more than 20 new BEVs over the next few years, including a > battery-powered Cadillac. And Fiat Chrysler is planning to offer four new > electric Jeeps, while Ford is working on an all-electric version of the F-150 > pickup. Meanwhile, Volkswagen is said to be investing $50 billion in > electrification technology. > > All in all, it amounts to a bonanza of BEVs. “It’s still a small fraction of > the market,” said Sam Abuelsamid, principal analyst for Navigant Research. > “But it’s definitely growing fast.” > > Even as the market grows, however, mainstream manufacturers have a quiet but > very real concern – the consumer. “The auto companies want to be committed, > and they think what they’re doing is a good idea,” noted Mike Ramsey, senior > director and automotive analyst for Gartner, Inc. “But they definitely need > to see some market pull.” > > Indeed, there’s still reason for concern on that front, despite the rollout > of so many products. Last year’s US BEV sales amounted to only about 1.5% of > the market, mostly because the vehicle prices are still higher than those of > comparable gas-burning cars. > > And that’s frightening for automakers who have already poured billions of > dollars into development of new BEVs. Many fear they will over-produce. They > imagine parking lots full of unsold, deeply-discounted, electric cars – and > deep financial losses. > > For mainstream automakers, it’s a risk they take as they dive head-long into > the electric fray. And they know it. “There is no demand,” one automotive > OEM, who preferred to remain anonymous, lamented to Design News . > > Still, it’s the reality. “The customer is in charge of the game,” noted David > Cole, chairman emeritus of the Center for Automotive Research and a 60-year > veteran of the auto industry. “And no one knows what the customer will do.” > > The Reasons Why > > A confluence of factors – including global competition, government > regulations, and falling battery prices – have brought mainstream automakers > to this juncture. > > It’s a juncture that many automakers couldn’t have imagined a decade ago. > Most had been more notable for their tepid acceptance of battery-electric > vehicles and, in some cases, outright refusal to build or sell them. > > But for almost every mainstream manufacturer today, regulations have become a > forcing factor. In the US, California and 14 other states have taken the > lead, calling on automakers to hit prescribed percentages of zero emission > vehicles (ZEV). If they don’t, there are penalties to be paid in the form of > ZEV credits. Such credits can cost tens of millions of dollars, and end up > getting paid to competitors, which most manufacturers are loathe to do. > > Then there’s the global market. Most observers say the global market is the > biggest motivator of all. At least 17 countries have announced plans to ban > internal combustion engines in city centers, mostly between 2030 and 2040. > And China has made battery-electric vehicles a national priority, even going > so far as to require that customers enter a lottery in order to get a license > for a new car with an internal combustion engine. > > For automakers, the handwriting is on the global wall. “When you’ve got > Europe and China and California holding a gun to your head and telling you to > sell EVs, then you’re going to sell EVs,” noted Abuelsamid of Navigant > Research. “If you want to be part of the global market, then you just have to > do this.” > > That’s why many of the aforementioned BEVs won’t be sold in the US. GM, for > example, has talked about more than 20 BEVs, many of which are ticketed for > China, Abuelsamid said. Ford has discussed as many as 14 different BEVs, of > which only six will be offered in the US, and FCA’s electric Jeeps are > targeted for other countries, he added. > > Some automakers are unhappy about the mandates, but have little choice. “This > is more of a forced march than a happy migration,” one foreign manufacturer > wrote to Design News. > > Others, such as GM, have concluded that if they have to build EVs globally, > they might as well call for a national EV mandate in the US. That way, they > can spread the cost of their massive BEV development efforts. > > Either way, they want to be careful not to build too much, for fear US > consumers won’t bite. It’s an especially difficult calculation, given the > fact that virtually every automaker is losing money on every BEV it sells. > “It’s really hard to make a business case for something that you know will > lose money for an extended period of time,” Abuelsamid said. “So everybody > aside from Tesla is trying to limit their sales to what they need to do in > order to meet the mandates.” > > Better Batteries > > Having been pushed to build EVs, however, automakers in recent years have > begun to make a curiously pleasant discovery: There's light at the end of > that long, dark, development tunnel. And that light is the lithium-ion > battery. > > Lithium-ion batteries have come a long way since a decade ago, when the > National Academy of Engineering estimated that they were costing OEMs more > than $1,000/kWh (at $1,000/kWh, an 85 kWh battery would have cost $85,000). > Today, most experts believe that the figure is under $200/kWh, and in many > cases, around $150. Moreover, that’s a pack cost, including not only the > lithium-ion cells, but the modules, cabling, and cooling systems, as well. > > And still, the numbers appear to be dropping. For the first time since the > U.S. Advanced Battery Consortium set a goal of $100/kWh more than two decades > ago, some automakers believe that figure may be in sight, said Cole of the > Center for Automotive Research. “There’s at least one company that’s > enthusiastic about it,” he told Design News. “In fact, they believe they can > go well below that number, which would give them a huge competitive > advantage.” If that’s true, then automakers could finally put EV costs on a > par with those of internal combustion-based vehicles, Cole added. > > Even today, some OEMs are finding that they can get volume discounts from > lithium suppliers if they can scale up their production. “We’re seeing that > the cost of a battery is about 40% of what it was six years ago,” Mike > Duhaime, head of electrification architecture and technology at Fiat > Chrysler, told Design News. “We’re almost at a point where battery-electrics > are on a par with plug-in hybrids in terms of cost.” > > Moreover, energy density is up, which means that automakers can also squeeze > more range out of a BEV. “The battery technology of five, six, eight years > ago got us 100 or 150 miles of range,” Duhaime said. “Today with the new > battery technologies and the new electronics, we’re seeing 300 miles.” > > A New Optimism > > For some automakers, the battery improvements are translating to real > optimism. Ford, for example, now believes that electric vehicles can succeed > in their own right. “There’s an opportunity to be margin-positive here – to > have profitability on battery-electrics,” Ted Cannis, global director of > electrification for Ford Motor Co., told us. > > For Ford, such thinking represents a major strategy shift. Only eight years > ago, the company rolled out the Ford Focus Electric, a hatchback with a tiny > 23 kWh battery and a meager 76-mile driving range. Sales were disappointing, > but not unexpected. In retrospect, Cannis said, their approach was > understandable, given the cost, the limited capabilities of the time, and the > knowledge that they would be losing money. “Part of the thinking was, ‘it’s a > compliance play,’” he said. > > Now, however, that’s changed. For the as-yet-unnamed BEV that will be > unveiled late this year, Ford engineers have taken a different tack. They > built atop the Mustang name, added a big battery with a 300-mile range, > employed a popular crossover form factor, and trotted out their chairman to > let the world know that the new vehicle would “go like hell.” > > [Photo] The first model on GM’s new EV platform will be a Cadillac. GM says > the new platform will allow engineers to quickly respond to customer > preferences with a relatively short development time. (Image source: Cadillac) > > “We had a couple of key principles,” Cannis said. “We decided we would > leverage our iconic vehicles – the ones that brought us to the party. This is > the strength of our brand around the world, where we have the greatest > loyalty, and where we have the greatest connection to our customers. That’s > been key.” > > Ford is also tailoring its vehicle design to the manufacturing process, > paying special attention to such matters as how the battery is placed in the > vehicle. And it’s focusing on the EV “eco-system,” including charging > infrastructure and customer experience, all of which is important to > tech-savvy EV consumers, Cannis said. > > Such consumer focus is key for virtually every mainstream EV maker today. The > result is that manufacturers are suddenly getting good grades for their > efforts. Jaguar’s new I-Pace won European Car of the Year, the first Jaguar > to capture the award in its 50-year history. Also, the Hyundai Kona Electric > and Kia Niro EV have received high praise for offering driving ranges of more > than 250 miles at relatively low starting prices. > > [Photo] Hyundai’s Kona Electric offers a 258-mile all-electric range for a > starting price of $36,850. (Image source: Hyundai) > > Couple that new breed of vehicles with more fast-charge stations, and the > future begins to look even rosier, manufacturers say. “Now, the EV becomes > more of a primary-use, rather than a secondary-use, vehicle,” said Duhaime of > Fiat Chrysler. > > Inspired by Tesla > > Industry analysts credit Tesla with providing part of the inspiration for > such changes in mainstream thinking. Tesla, they say, showed there was a > willing market for EVs by making an honest effort to appeal to buyers. Their > vehicles offered long range and smart styling, along with great safety > ratings and stellar acceleration and handling. The result was powerful > word-of-mouth and an incredible international media buzz surrounding its > vehicles. > > “In the past, the theory was that only hard-core environmentalists would want > to pay the premium for these vehicles,” Abuelsamid said. “They were just too > expensive. But Tesla showed that these cars can appeal on their own merit, > and that’s been a huge boon to all EVs.” > > The question now is how big the EV market really is. US sales of BEVs this > year aren’t much better than 2018, and Tesla appears unlikely to come close > to the goals that it set for itself. The company’s mainstay – the Model 3 EV > – posted sales of 25,000 units in December, then dropped to 6,500 in January > after a $7,500 government tax credit for buyers was cut in half. Although > sales have rebounded slightly, the company’s stock nose dived from $385 a > share to less than $180 a share in a space of four months. In June, The New > York Times questioned whether Tesla would ever be more than a niche player. > > Skeptics worry that it’s taking too long for BEVs to make money. Amazon, they > say, went through similarly dark, unprofitable days, when consumers balked at > its business model. But the electric car re-boot began years before Amazon > was launched, and now Amazon is a giant, whereas electric cars continue to > struggle, they say. > > To be sure, most studies suggest that BEVs will keep gaining share over time. > Bloomberg’s Electric Vehicle Outlook 2017 predicted that 54% of new car sales > and 33% of the global car fleet would be electric by 2040. The question, > however, is whether mainstreamers and startups can keep investing in the > technology until the numbers rise. > > Industry experts say that the winners in the BEV space may be the companies > with the wherewithal to outlast the others. Cole of the Center for Automotive > Research believes the OEM market will ultimately be defined along the lines > of the “haves” and “have-nots.” The “haves,” he said, are more likely to be > able to make the continued investment that’s necessary for BEVs to compete > with gasoline-powered vehicles, especially in the mid- and entry-level > markets. > > “The ‘haves’ are looking at autonomy, mobility, and electrification, and it’s > unclear to them what’s going to happen,” Cole said. “They admit they don’t > know. But they’ll have the ability to stay in the game, and maybe even get a > competitive advantage, whereas the ‘have-nots’ will have to find a partner – > somebody who can help them do it.” > > Still, mainstream automakers are more committed than ever, and are likely to > keep investing in the technology, as long as governments continue to push and > battery costs continue to fall. If the market is ready, they say, then > they’re ready. > > For that reason, a willing consumer will be the key. “Up to now, economics > have been shoved aside in the debate over electrification, at least at the > public level,” Cole said. “But consumers will have their say, and economics > will ultimately be the deciding factor.” > > --- > Senior technical editor Chuck Murray has been writing about technology for 35 > years. He joined Design News in 1987, and has covered electronics, > automation, fluid power, and auto. > _______________________________________________ > UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub > http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org > Please discuss EV drag racing at NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) > _______________________________________________ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org Please discuss EV drag racing at NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
