Lee is right that small cars HAVE had some modest success in the US, mostly 
for non-US manufacturers.  

I think the problem is that US automakers just don't want to bother with 
modest success.

Maybe it's not entirely that they don't want to, but also that they can't.  
In recent decades we've seen large institutional stockholders demanding ever 
larger short-term returns.  If the execs deliver them, they're rewarded with 
eye-watering salaries, bonuses, and stock options.  If they don't, they're 
shown the door.

That's an incentive to forget next year, let alone next decade, and focus on 
the highest possible profits for this quarter.  Hence bigger vehicles, which 
yield bigger profits.

Willie wonders why that's so.  I'm not an insider, but I think it's because 
a lot of the cost of building vehicles is labor, and it doesn't take much if 
any less labor to build a small car than a large one. But buyers perceive 
more value in a large vehicle, so large vehicles can be priced higher 
relative to production cost.

I might add parenthetically that I think one reason that Detroit is so hot 
for pickup trucks is that "new" models are even cheaper than cars to 
develop. Pickups haven't fundamentally changed since Ford added independent 
front suspension in 1965, so there's no significant engineering. Tweak the 
sheet metal a little; make new grille and taillight molds; raise the 
suspension another 2"; add more exhaust rumble, big phallic tailpipes, and 
some chrome trim; et voila - a "new" pickup with a 10% higher price.

The world event that turbocharged US small-car sales was the 1974 Mideast 
oil embargo.  It caught GM, Ford, and Chrysler flat-footed.  They had square 
miles of lots filled with 13mpg bloatmobiles, and no small efficient cars 
that anyone wanted to buy.  (Can you say "Ford Pinto" and "Chevy Vega"?)

Toyota and Nissan stepped in with 28mpg cars (1974 Nissan billboard: "Datsun 
saves - about a gallon a day") and the US discovered how GOOD Japanese 
vehicles were.  GM/Ford/Chrysler lost market share and positioning that they 
never fully recovered.

Today it might be corporate attitude or their stockholders, but whatever it 
is, GM, Ford, and Fiat/Chrysler just don't seem to give a hoot about EVs.  
Look here and tell me if you see them anywhere:

https://carsalesbase.com/european-sales-2020-q1-ev-phev/

(In case you don't know, GM sold Opel to the French PSA Group in 2017.)

I can't say for sure that we'll have an EV-boosting equivalent of the 1974 
oil embargo, or when, though I'm pretty sure the world's oil supply isn't 
infinite. 

But if and when something like that does happen, the big three (and maybe 
Toyota too this time) are going to get blindsided again.

That's when Tesla will become the #1 US automaker, provided that they have a 
nice range of EVs that the world still wants, and haven't sold out, moved to 
China, or been sued into oblivion.

David Roden, EVDL moderator & general lackey

To reach me, don't reply to this message; I won't get it.  Use my 
offlist address here : http://evdl.org/help/index.html#supt

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