I see long range EVs as a transitory solution. Some facts to consider: The number of people with driver's licenses has been steadily declining for decades. Their are many people in their 30's and 40's who have never had a license and that number is growing. www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-decline-of-the-drivers-license/425169/
The ready availability of Uber, Lyft, etc. will likely accelerate this trend. Self driving vehicles will dramatically accelerate this trend. I'm guessing that, perhaps 15-20 years from now, manually driven vehicles will be the exception rather than the rule. Once that happens, private ownership of vehicles will start to decline and public transportation will increase. The need for EVs that can go 200-500 miles per charge will go away. This will lead to fewer vehicles on the interstate highways. Once that happens it will make sense to convert (at least some) of the lanes autonomous traffic only lanes and possibly switch back to rails. With a new rail system, there is no real need to make it compatible with the old system so wider railcars (perhaps 10-12 feet wide) become possible. If you convert the highways entirely to rail traffic, then you could have two rails going in each direction, with passenger traffic and high priority cargo using one rail and less time sensitive cargo on the second rail. The second rail could possibly be setup to be 100% solar/wind powered so the trains only move when surplus energy is available. Most of us can agree that for the most part, EVs are better than ICEs. For long distance transportation, Electrc trains are bettern than EVs. December 9, 2020 10:07 AM, "EVDL Administrator via EV" <[email protected]> wrote: > Lee Hart has commented several times about the way engineers tend to play > follow-the-leader. Thus it is that we have, in effect, entirely laid all > our road EV eggs in the lithium basket. > > I can see the possibility that once we reach a point where a significant > percentage of vehicles on the road are powered by lithium batteries, the > need for litium mining will decline as old batteries are recycled. > > But unless we find or develop a battery type that uses more common, more > plentiful materials, reaching that point means mining one heck of a LOT of > lithium. > > I was reminded of this by a piece in the Guardian. > > https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/dec/08/the-curse-of-white-oil-electric- > vehicles-dirty-secret-lithium > > https://v.gd/NRrCfO > > The title notwithstanding, it's NOT a hit piece on EVs, it just points out > that to achieve the EU's goals will require mining a fair bit of lithium. > > And it turns out that lithium mining hits closer to home than I realized. > > Maybe I've confused it with the materials that go into motors, but I sort of > had the impression that lithium mostly came from third world dictatorships. > Not that that's GOOD, mind you. Those places aren't known for being > concerned with either the environment or the poor folks doing the mining > work. > > But look at who supplies the literal majority of the lithium. It's > Australia that provides 55%. I had no idea. > > The other surprise is that Portugal has large lithium deposits. > > It sounds like the Portugese, who the article say are generally somewhat > less "green" than other western EU folk, may be facing something not too > far removed from the horrendous and destructive mountaintop removal mining > carried out in West Virginia here in the US. > > That's not a good look for EVs, and it gives more ammunition to the anti-EV > forces. > > In saying that I don't mean to minimize the very real environmental > degradation that can come from mining. > > And of course one difference is that the lithium is mined and then used for > years in an EV, as opposed to petroleum being pumped continuously to keep > feeding the ICEV hordes. > > What, if anything, is on the horizon that might lessen EVs' dependence on > lithium? > > David Roden, EVDL moderator & general lackey > > To reach me, don't reply to this message; I won't get it. Use my > offlist address here : http://evdl.org/help/index.html#supt > > = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = > There'll be one corporation, selling one little box. > It'll do what you want, and tell you what you want, > And cost whatever you've got. > > -- Greg Brown, "Where is Maria," 1996 > = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = > > _______________________________________________ > UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub > ARCHIVE: http://www.evdl.org/archive/index.html > INFO: http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org > Please discuss EV drag racing at NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) _______________________________________________ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub ARCHIVE: http://www.evdl.org/archive/index.html INFO: http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org Please discuss EV drag racing at NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
