That is probably over optimistic:
- Even if there's ultimately a need for 25% the current number of
vehicles, we will still need to produce an enormous number of EVs, which
with current technology will need a huge amount of lithium.
- Some people will need long range EVs to go places not served by trains
(like into sparsely populated areas).
- Some people will choose an EV over public transpo because they have
too many people to move around or too much stuff to haul.
But, in principle, I agree with you. A lot of savings and reduction in
car ownership can be attained once you can easily summon a car for a
ride to a transit hub or to do an errand.
Peri
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------ Original Message ------
From: "Peter VanDerWal via EV" <[email protected]>
To: "Electric Vehicle Discussion List" <[email protected]>
Cc: [email protected]
Sent: 10-Dec-20 11:56:16 AM
Subject: Re: [EVDL] The lithium basket
I see long range EVs as a transitory solution.
Some facts to consider:
The number of people with driver's licenses has been steadily declining for
decades. Their are many people in their 30's and 40's who have never had a
license and that number is growing.
www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-decline-of-the-drivers-license/425169/
The ready availability of Uber, Lyft, etc. will likely accelerate this trend.
Self driving vehicles will dramatically accelerate this trend.
I'm guessing that, perhaps 15-20 years from now, manually driven vehicles will
be the exception rather than the rule.
Once that happens, private ownership of vehicles will start to decline and
public transportation will increase. The need for EVs that can go 200-500
miles per charge will go away.
This will lead to fewer vehicles on the interstate highways. Once that happens
it will make sense to convert (at least some) of the lanes autonomous traffic
only lanes and possibly switch back to rails. With a new rail system, there is
no real need to make it compatible with the old system so wider railcars
(perhaps 10-12 feet wide) become possible.
If you convert the highways entirely to rail traffic, then you could have two
rails going in each direction, with passenger traffic and high priority cargo
using one rail and less time sensitive cargo on the second rail. The second
rail could possibly be setup to be 100% solar/wind powered so the trains only
move when surplus energy is available.
Most of us can agree that for the most part, EVs are better than ICEs.
For long distance transportation, Electrc trains are bettern than EVs.
December 9, 2020 10:07 AM, "EVDL Administrator via EV" <[email protected]>
wrote:
Lee Hart has commented several times about the way engineers tend to play
follow-the-leader. Thus it is that we have, in effect, entirely laid all
our road EV eggs in the lithium basket.
I can see the possibility that once we reach a point where a significant
percentage of vehicles on the road are powered by lithium batteries, the
need for litium mining will decline as old batteries are recycled.
But unless we find or develop a battery type that uses more common, more
plentiful materials, reaching that point means mining one heck of a LOT of
lithium.
I was reminded of this by a piece in the Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/dec/08/the-curse-of-white-oil-electric-
vehicles-dirty-secret-lithium
https://v.gd/NRrCfO
The title notwithstanding, it's NOT a hit piece on EVs, it just points out
that to achieve the EU's goals will require mining a fair bit of lithium.
And it turns out that lithium mining hits closer to home than I realized.
Maybe I've confused it with the materials that go into motors, but I sort of
had the impression that lithium mostly came from third world dictatorships.
Not that that's GOOD, mind you. Those places aren't known for being
concerned with either the environment or the poor folks doing the mining
work.
But look at who supplies the literal majority of the lithium. It's
Australia that provides 55%. I had no idea.
The other surprise is that Portugal has large lithium deposits.
It sounds like the Portugese, who the article say are generally somewhat
less "green" than other western EU folk, may be facing something not too
far removed from the horrendous and destructive mountaintop removal mining
carried out in West Virginia here in the US.
That's not a good look for EVs, and it gives more ammunition to the anti-EV
forces.
In saying that I don't mean to minimize the very real environmental
degradation that can come from mining.
And of course one difference is that the lithium is mined and then used for
years in an EV, as opposed to petroleum being pumped continuously to keep
feeding the ICEV hordes.
What, if anything, is on the horizon that might lessen EVs' dependence on
lithium?
David Roden, EVDL moderator & general lackey
To reach me, don't reply to this message; I won't get it. Use my
offlist address here : http://evdl.org/help/index.html#supt
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There'll be one corporation, selling one little box.
It'll do what you want, and tell you what you want,
And cost whatever you've got.
-- Greg Brown, "Where is Maria," 1996
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