Well, that was 45 minutes of snooze for info that could have been presented in a 10-minute-read web page. Thank goodness for the skip button.
Where to start? I'm not an economics expert but I'm not convinced that Munroe is either. Xi Jinping (now effectively emperor) does seem to want EVs and cleaner air for China. However, he needs military strength and expansion more, to stir up nationalism among a Chinese population getting restive over corrupion, rising income inequality, and Xi's prissy, oppressive surveillance state. Munroe dismisses the Taiwan situation. I don't. I may be missing something, but I don't see how nationalizing foreign automakers in China would make much difference - or help China. Maybe someone can explain that. They're already required to form partnerships with Chinese automakers, who then glom on to their technology. Nationalizing them would be poor strategy, since it would frighten off other western companies who'd otherwise hand over their technology to China too. Nor do I see how Tesla's position would be any better in such a scenario. Again, I may be missing something. EV sales absolutely *will* continue to strengthen in Europe. Several Western European nations will require EVs some time between 2030 and 2040. However, I don't see EV sales getting close to 100% for a long time, if ever, if only because Eastern Europe mostly doesn't seem to give a fig. I agree that Chinese automakers have a very good chance of taking a significant part of those EU EV sales away from European automakers, the way the Japanese did with ICEVs in the 1970s US. In fact that's already started. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/31/business/electric-cars-china-europe.html or https://v.gd/5OBTEF But I don't see that affecting US automakers as much as he seems to. Maybe I misunderstood Munroe on this point. But GM has totally given up on Europe. Ford is almost a non-entity there these days. Stellantis-Fiat-Chrysler-Jeep- PSA-Peugeot-Citroen-Opel-et-al (good grief, 14 brands!) isn't a US automaker. That leaves Tesla of course, doing well now that they've finally figured out that their EU prices were way too high. However, so far they have no vehicles in the A-, B-, and C-segments. The 3 is a D-segment! They need to get a-crackin' on a supermini or something. In the US, California will probably remain a bright spot for EV sales, unless the feds slap down their mandate in the future. I don't recall Munroe mentioning that, but again, maybe I missed it. Nationally, we USians don't have the political will to emulate Europe's carbon-limitation efforts. If Chinese EVs are cheap enough, some will sell outside of CA, but I think that most of the US will remain a dumping ground for the world's automakers' clunky, obsolete, but high-profit ICEVs. While as Munroe says it may indeed transpire that Tesla and Chinese automakers will have the lion's share of EV sales in the US, I think that the lion will be more the size of a newborn kitten. But things can change. We could have a fuel *availability* crunch. US drivers will put up with rising fuel prices, but they *despise* waiting in line or having to drive all over town to find fuel. That could convince more to buy EVs. Or China or AUKUS could flick a lit cigarette into the wrong place and ignite a world war. If that happens, though, EV sales will be the least of our worries. David Roden, EVDL moderator & general lackey To reach me, don't reply to this message; I won't get it. Use my offlist address here : http://evdl.org/help/index.html#supt = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = Then there was the lovable fully-armored Renfair performer who insisted on showing everyone his artistic photography, just so he could hear them say "Good prints, sweet knight." -- Anonymous = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = _______________________________________________ Address messages to [email protected] No other addresses in TO and CC fields UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub ARCHIVE: http://www.evdl.org/archive/ LIST INFO: http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org
