You are right about one thing the competition is non-existent. But there are no indications that will change any time soon. Tesla cars are so far superior the others may never catch them. Still looks to me like they haven’t figured out what to produce because they don’t understand the market
Sent from AT&T Yahoo Mail for iPhone On Monday, January 10, 2022, 11:00 PM, Haudy Kazemi via EV <[email protected]> wrote: What is expected to happen in or around 2025 that will cause US EV sales to fall? Mass autonomy? TAAS? That's a lot bigger claim than to say Tesla's share of the EV sales will fall, or that Tesla's sales will fall. Tesla's share of EV sales could fall even if their sales counts held steady. Tesla's sales could fall if the legacy players catch up to, even surpass, Tesla on range, reliability, charging networks, product maturity, and product (experience) management. To date, Tesla has benefited from weak competition in the EV space, and also from forgiving early adopters willing to put up with various moves that cannot be expected to 'fly' with the mass market. There is also the longer term matter of product maintenance/maintainability at affordable levels. We know that at least some ICE vehicle models (looking at Corolla and Gen 2, 3 Prius here) can be keep running up to several hundred thousand miles with generally low maintenance costs. Can manufacturer EVs match that? Will garage mechanics be able to do even basic servicing? What will happen with the Right to Repair? On Mon, Jan 10, 2022, 22:20 EV List Lackey via EV <[email protected]> wrote: > On 10 Jan 2022 at 20:57, paul dove via EV wrote: > > > This will only work if people buy their product. > > Correct. Toyota is very very late to the EV game. I'm not convinced that > they'll ever catch up, but I could be wrong. (There's also the fact that > Toyota build the most hideous-looking cars on the road, but maybe I'm the > only one with that opinion.) > > > Tesla has still sold more than all the rest combined except maybe china. > > Depends on where. I don't doubt that that's true in the US. > > In Europe, Tesla is the cumulative sales leader by a small margin, but > nowhere near "more than the rest combined." And Europe is where the > brightest future of EVs lies. > > Cumulative EU EV sales, 2012-2020: > > Tesla 309,859 > Renault 308,153 > VW 213,726 > > Those historical figures conceal what's happening now. > > 2020 EU EV sales: > > Volkswagen 114,797 > Renault 106,262 > Tesla 97,548 > > Tesla's 2020 EU sales were down 13%, while Volkswagen's QUADRUPLED and > Renault's more than DOUBLED. And we've just started to see the effect of > VW's expanded EV offerings and Renault's low cost Dacia Spring. > > So far it looks like Tesla may squeak by VW to take the lead in 2021. Or > not; it's right on the edge. I don't have a breakout of VW's 2021 E-Up > sales yet, so I can't calculate VW's total. But ID3s are selling about as > fast as they can build them, and ID4s are doing surprisingly well too. > > VW offer Europe a range of EV sizes and styles: the A-segment E-up, the C- > segment ID3, and the D-segment (I think) ID4. Their EVs are designed for > European drivers, European roads and streets, and European parking > spaces. > > VW is serious about selling EVs in Europe. > > Tesla effectively offer Europe one EV of one size in two styles, sedan or > wagon, and it's classifed as a large car (D-segment) in Europe. The Model > 3/Y is designed for American drivers, American roads and streets, and > American parking spaces. > > Tesla is not serious about selling EVs in Europe. > > Model 3 - Tesla's smallest car! - is 6mm wider and 20mm longer than a > Koleos, Renault's largest SUV. There's no way I'd want to drive or park > either one in Europe's medieval towns, with their one-car-wide alleys and > their barely-open-the-doors parking spaces. > > I don't think it's a good idea for Tesla to count on US EV sales for their > future. I could again be wrong, but I expect that US EV sales, even > Tesla's, will decline from 2025, possibly even earlier. > > Meanwhile, in 2025, Norway will no longer allow sales of passenger ICEVs. > Already 75% of vehicle sales there are EVs. > > I think that Tesla needs to get a clue what Europe needs and wants in > their > EVs, and pronto, if they don't want to end up like Toyota. But what do I > know? > > David Roden, EVDL moderator & general lackey > > To reach me, don't reply to this message; I won't get it. 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