George Levy wrote:
All this involves really basic probability theory.
The first person perspective probability is identical to the probability conditional to the person staying alive.
But that first-person probability is not objective, and not valid, and not useful.
Consider this from a purely pragmatic point of view. (Not a formal argument per say.)
A person must consider the (non-zero) objective probability that they will die (and be then non-existent) (if they do this or that action). If people did not account for the probability
that they will die if they do a foolish act, then they will probably die. Their subjective
1st person sense of probability is naively optimistic and not a survival trait. If
a person acts with that kind of probability belief in every possible world, they will
reduce their measure beyond measure. Surely there is something incorrect about
a probability view which has that detrimental effect on one's measure.