George Levy wrote:

Conclusions:

All this involves really basic probability theory.

The first person perspective probability is identical to the
probability conditional to the person staying alive.

But that first-person probability is not objective, and not valid, and
not useful.

Consider this from a purely pragmatic point of view. (Not a formal
argument per say.)

A person must consider the (non-zero) objective probability that they
will die (and be then non-existent) (if they do this or that action). If
people did not account for the probability

that they will die if they do a foolish act, then they will probably
die. Their subjective

1st person sense of probability is naively optimistic and not a survival
trait. If

a person acts with that kind of probability belief in every possible
world, they will

reduce their measure beyond measure. Surely there is something incorrect
about

a probability view which has that detrimental effect on one's measure.

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