Here is a similar paradox to the traffic lane example: In the new casino game called Flip-Flop, an odd number of
players pay $1 each to gather in individual cubicles and flip a coin (so no
player can see what another player is doing). The game organisers tally up the results, and the result which is in the minority is said to
be the Winning Flip, while the minority result is said to be the Losing Flip.
For example, if there are 101 players and of these 53 flip heads while 48 flip
tails, tails is the Winning Flip and heads is the Losing Flip. Before the
result of the tally is announced, each player must commit to either keep the
result of their original coin flip, whether heads or tails, or switch to the
opposite result. The casino then announces what the Winning Flip was, and
players whose final result (however it was obtained) corresponds with this are
paid $2, while the rest get nothing. The question now: is there anything to be gained by
switching at the last step of this game? From the point of view of typical
player, it would seem that there is not: the Winning Flip is as likely to be
heads as tails, and if he played the game repeatedly over time, he should
expect to break even, whether he switches in the final step or not. On the
other hand, it seems clear that if nobody switches, the casino is ahead, while
if everbody switches, the players are ahead; so switching would seem to be a
winning strategy for the players. This latter result is not due to any
cooperation effect, as only those players who switch get the improved (on
average) outcome. Stathis Papaioannou |

- re: observation selection effects Stathis Papaioannou
- Re: observation selection effects John M
- re: observation selection effects Kory Heath
- Re: observation selection effects Kory Heath
- Re: observation selection effects Kory Heath
- Re: observation selection effects John M

- Re: observation selection effects Jesse Mazer
- Re: observation selection effects Kory Heath

- re: observation selection effects Stathis Papaioannou
- RE: Observation selection effects Brent Meeker
- RE: Observation selection effects Stathis Papaioannou