On Thu, Apr 24, 2025 at 10:30 AM 'Cosmin Visan' via Everything List < [email protected]> wrote:
*> Given that AI has 0 intelligence...* *... and thus just before the last human being in existence was vaporized he turned to Mr. Jupiter Brain and said "I still think I'm smarter than you". * *John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis <https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis>* 243 > > > On Thursday, 24 April 2025 at 15:40:29 UTC+3 John Clark wrote: > >> *The AI futures project has updated their forecast ( AI 2027 >> <https://ai-2027.com/?ending=slowdown#section-slowdown-0> ) **that came >> out about a month ago, things are moving so fast frequent updates are >> necessary: * >> >> *Beyond The Last Horizon* >> <https://blog.ai-futures.org/p/beyond-the-last-horizon?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email> >> >> [image: image.png] >> *Progress is so fast that just a few days after the updated report there >> was enough information to make the graph seen above; the AI project people >> conclude from it that "OpenAI’s newest models’ time horizons seem to be on >> the faster curve we predicted, rather than the slower seven-month doubling >> time". Keep in mind that the above graph is an exponential graph, so a >> straight line means exponential growth, and anything above that line means >> super exponential growth.* >> >> *The authors conclude that today "AIs are able to do quick tasks, but not >> long tasks. But they’re getting better at long tasks! So far it looks like >> they can do tasks of about 15 - 60 minutes, and that number doubles >> somewhere between every 3 - 7 months. These numbers are most applicable to >> coding, and uncertainty increases the further we go from that domain. AIs >> seem on track to master coding before they master any other comparatively >> economically important sector. That's interesting because if there’s an >> intelligence explosion, superhuman coder AIs are probably when it starts in >> earnest. Our best guess is AIs will become as good or better than the very >> best human computer programmers sometime in 2027, although with big error >> bars and multiple asterisks. We think these human-level coders will be >> enough to start the intelligence explosion, which is why we place it in >> 2027 or 2028."* >> >> *It looks like Ray Kurzweil's prediction that the Singularity will happen >> in 2045 is way too conservative.* >> >> *And to think, some people are still getting all hot and bothered over >> trivialities like illegal immigration and transsexual men in women's >> sports. * >> >> *John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis >> <https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis>* >> akf >> > > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv0SDYTECLHGurS7T_-OBzU1EiGZFPqXyKL6dAWhW0uS8g%40mail.gmail.com.
