HYPER-DYPER-EXPONENTIAL-THROUGH-THE-ROOOOF!!!!! On Wednesday, 30 April 2025 at 05:07:11 UTC+3 Russell Standish wrote:
> The data shown on that graph is inconclusive between exponential or > super-exponential growth. > > In theory, super-exponential (ie hyperbolic) growth won't happen until > AIs start to design themselves. > > 2027? Maybe, but there's a lot of hype in this field. But sometime in > the near future - yes it's looking likely. > > > > On Thu, Apr 24, 2025 at 08:39:45AM -0400, John Clark wrote: > > The AI futures project has updated their forecast ( AI 2027 ) that came > out > > about a month ago, things are moving so fast frequent updates are > necessary: > > > > Beyond The Last Horizon > > > > image.png > > Progress is so fast that just a few days after the updated report there > was > > enough information to make the graph seen above; the AI project people > conclude > > from it that "OpenAI’s newest models’ time horizons seem to be on the > faster > > curve we predicted, rather than the slower seven-month doubling time". > Keep in > > mind that the above graph is an exponential graph, so a straight line > means > > exponential growth, and anything above that line means super exponential > > growth. > > > > The authors conclude that today "AIs are able to do quick tasks, but not > long > > tasks. But they’re getting better at long tasks! So far it looks like > they can > > do tasks of about 15 - 60 minutes, and that number doubles somewhere > between > > every 3 - 7 months. These numbers are most applicable to coding, and > > uncertainty increases the further we go from that domain. AIs seem on > track to > > master coding before they master any other comparatively economically > important > > sector. That's interesting because if there’s an intelligence explosion, > > superhuman coder AIs are probably when it starts in earnest. Our best > guess is > > AIs will become as good or better than the very best human computer > programmers > > sometime in 2027, although with big error bars and multiple asterisks. > We think > > these human-level coders will be enough to start the intelligence > explosion, > > which is why we place it in 2027 or 2028." > > > > It looks like Ray Kurzweil's prediction that the Singularity will happen > in > > 2045 is way too conservative. > > > > And to think, some people are still getting all hot and bothered over > > trivialities like illegal immigration and transsexual men in women's > sports. > > > > John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis > > akf > > > > > > > > > > -- > > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > > "Everything List" group. > > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send > an email > > to [email protected]. > > To view this discussion visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list > > /CAJPayv2MaMTz2Cgqz0pX2WsMXbbeo-TiakbOUWgYcxh2-btBzQ%40mail.gmail.com. > > > > -- > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > Dr Russell Standish Phone 0425 253119 (mobile) > Principal, High Performance Coders [email protected] > http://www.hpcoders.com.au > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/2d7050df-2551-491f-a0d4-e091e8c2ccf4n%40googlegroups.com.
