---------- Forwarded message --------- From: Paul Krugman from Paul Krugman <[email protected]> Date: Wed, Oct 1, 2025 at 6:35 AM Subject: Bulging Biceps Don’t Win Modern Wars To: <[email protected]>
Hegseth’s speech was vile. It was also stupid. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ Forwarded this email? Subscribe here <https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9wYXVsa3J1Z21hbi5zdWJzdGFjay5jb20vc3Vic2NyaWJlP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPWVtYWlsLXN1YnNjcmliZSZyPTZ4M25uJm5leHQ9aHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZwYXVsa3J1Z21hbi5zdWJzdGFjay5jb20lMkZwJTJGYnVsZ2luZy1iaWNlcHMtZG9udC13aW4tbW9kZXJuLXdhcnMiLCJwIjoxNzQ5NzA1MjMsInMiOjI3NzUxNywiZiI6dHJ1ZSwidSI6MTE2MjIwODMsImlhdCI6MTc1OTMxNDkwMywiZXhwIjoyMDc0ODkwOTAzLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMCIsInN1YiI6ImxpbmstcmVkaXJlY3QifQ.D9jc287sXkbON1A1tnSQhbqFe9eXoD-sF9m3q2W7inM?> for more Bulging Biceps Don’t Win Modern Wars <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=277517&post_id=174970523&utm_source=post-email-title&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=6x3nn&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMTYyMjA4MywicG9zdF9pZCI6MTc0OTcwNTIzLCJpYXQiOjE3NTkzMTQ5MDMsImV4cCI6MTc2MTkwNjkwMywiaXNzIjoicHViLTI3NzUxNyIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.EDZKXnPOYRf7JHxpjSBbmaS0SY_40lW27JY6tWIBx8I>Hegseth’s speech was vile. It was also stupid. Paul Krugman <https://substack.com/@paulkrugman> Oct 1 <https://substack.com/@paulkrugman> <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=277517&post_id=174970523&utm_source=substack&isFreemail=true&submitLike=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMTYyMjA4MywicG9zdF9pZCI6MTc0OTcwNTIzLCJyZWFjdGlvbiI6IuKdpCIsImlhdCI6MTc1OTMxNDkwMywiZXhwIjoxNzYxOTA2OTAzLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMjc3NTE3Iiwic3ViIjoicmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.XqZtZ1gsfXVpFVQP8zUd0kWUl_uk7coGuAQQstpcOzc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-reaction&r=6x3nn> <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=277517&post_id=174970523&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&isFreemail=true&comments=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMTYyMjA4MywicG9zdF9pZCI6MTc0OTcwNTIzLCJpYXQiOjE3NTkzMTQ5MDMsImV4cCI6MTc2MTkwNjkwMywiaXNzIjoicHViLTI3NzUxNyIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.EDZKXnPOYRf7JHxpjSBbmaS0SY_40lW27JY6tWIBx8I&r=6x3nn&utm_campaign=email-half-magic-comments&action=post-comment&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email> <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=277517&post_id=174970523&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&action=share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=6x3nn&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMTYyMjA4MywicG9zdF9pZCI6MTc0OTcwNTIzLCJpYXQiOjE3NTkzMTQ5MDMsImV4cCI6MTc2MTkwNjkwMywiaXNzIjoicHViLTI3NzUxNyIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.EDZKXnPOYRf7JHxpjSBbmaS0SY_40lW27JY6tWIBx8I> <https://substack.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.j7_0eIeMy3AK7zQnutgZDxLuIN7WEuh__6qPQDVXT4M?&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email> READ IN APP <https://open.substack.com/pub/paulkrugman/p/bulging-biceps-dont-win-modern-wars?utm_source=email&redirect=app-store&utm_campaign=email-read-in-app> [image: How drones and video-game techniques are coming together in Ukraine's war] <https://substack.com/redirect/17d0e382-7f24-4812-b6a7-4c85c7bd34cc?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o> *A Ukrainian drone operator* Why did Pete Hegseth, the defense secretary — he may call himself secretary of war, but Congress has not, in fact, voted to change his department’s name — summon 800 top generals and admirals to Washington? I admit that I feared the worst — that he would demand that they pledge personal fealty to Donald Trump. But no: They were summoned to listen to a speech <https://substack.com/redirect/426cf573-74ca-4149-a8a6-2e25520334fc?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o> about “lethality,” followed by a highly political speech by Trump himself. How do you achieve lethality, according to Hegseth? By telling the military that it’s OK to engage in hazing, sexual abuse and bigotry — he didn’t say that explicitly, but that was his clear message. Also, war crimes are no big deal. And members of the military, including the top brass, must shave their beards, lose weight and do pullups. Hegseth’s speech was morally vile. It was also, however, profoundly stupid. Hegseth seems to have gotten his ideas about what an effective military looks like by watching the movie *300*. I am, of course, by no means a military expert myself. But I read and talk to people who *are* military experts, and think I have some idea about how modern wars are fought. Furthermore, there’s a clear family resemblance between Hegsethian stupidity about modern war and Trumpian stupidity about economic policy. Modern nations don’t achieve prosperity by emphasizing “manly” jobs; they don’t win wars by having big biceps. War still requires extraordinary courage from the men and women engaged in combat — courage that, according to officers I’ve spoken with, is rooted in a sense of honor, not swaggering machismo. Combatants also have to be physically fit enough to endure incredible hardship. But they don’t have to look like bodybuilders — and anyway, only a small fraction of a modern army engages directly in combat. These days, war is conducted largely with machines and ranged weapons, and most of an army’s personnel are employed, one way or another, keeping those machines and weapons in action and providing the intelligence that makes them effective. These noncombatants are every bit as essential to victory as front-line troops. Actually, this has been true for a long time, at least since World War II. I very much doubt that Hegseth would consider the team led by Alan Turing, which broke Germany’s Enigma code, or the group led by Joseph Rochefort <https://substack.com/redirect/32ea970f-2d39-4b8d-8572-5f649b09e67f?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o>, which broke Japan’s naval code, warriors — even leaving aside the fact that Turing was gay. Yet they contributed as much to victory as any front-line soldier. And the “warrior ethos” Hegseth touts is even less sufficient, on its own, to win wars today. We don’t have to speculate about what a 21st century war would look like, because there’s ferocious, dare I say lethal, combat happening in Ukraine as you read this. Some readers may recall how impressive many politicians on the right found Russia’s army before it tried to conquer Ukraine: [image: A screenshot of a social media post AI-generated content may be incorrect.] <https://substack.com/redirect/d05b578d-6192-4f4b-b15d-29498f104148?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o> But it turned out that the Russian army was much better at looking tough than it was at actually waging war. All that non-woke masculinity didn’t prevent Russia’s initial attempt to seize Kyiv from becoming an epic disaster. And while the war goes on, and on, and on, it’s now waged largely with drones and cruise missiles, not well-groomed guys with six-pack abs. As the military historian and analyst Phillips O’Brien wrote in a recent Substack post <https://substack.com/redirect/4ac775e0-a0b5-40aa-a7a8-72eb1fbddf01?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o>, technology has turned large parts of the Ukraine battlefield into “kill zones” — sort of like No Man’s Land in World War I, but 40 or more kilometers wide. Sending men into these zones, no matter how tough they look, is just a way to throw their lives away. The Ukrainians, although outnumbered, have held their own in this new kind of war, not by being tougher than the Russians — although they are awesomely, almost inconceivably tough — but by being smarter, more flexible and more innovative, virtues I doubt loom large in Hegseth’s concept of lethality. But Hegseth and Trump, not surprisingly, have learned nothing from this story. Here’s how O’Brien summarized it in a note <https://substack.com/@phillipspobrien/note/c-161545670> yesterday: [image: A screenshot of a social media post AI-generated content may be incorrect.] <https://substack.com/redirect/8d467208-2e65-4975-bac1-5a5fbfca7afa?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o> I’d add that a military rife with sexual abuse and bigotry isn’t going to attract the best minds — many of which, although people like Hegseth will never believe it, reside in female and nonwhite bodies. As I said, all of this is of a piece with Trumpian policy in other domains. *Of course* a regime that believes it can make America great by defunding science and destroying higher education believes that it can make our military more effective by making it prejudiced and stupid. The good news is that America’s officer corps *isn’t* stupid, at least not yet. The stony silence with which the assembled generals and admirals greeted Hegseth’s and Trump’s rants was eloquent. But you can now add the military to the list of great American institutions that MAGA is, in effect, trying to destroy. MUSICAL CODA <https://substack.com/redirect/1d07bd90-086c-482a-ab78-16719a2e8434?j=eyJ1IjoiNngzbm4ifQ.I1PMvYo4mI3PquTDRhL5Dev-9_ouIq3kw6ZhrVNsy8o> *You’re currently a free subscriber to Paul Krugman. 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