On 10/15/2012 7:33 AM, John Clark wrote:
Nick Bostrum, a philosopher at Oxford University wrote an interesting paper on this subject:

http://www.simulation-argument.com/simulation.html

The following is from the abstract:

"This paper argues that /at least one/ of the following propositions is true: (1) the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage; (2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof); (3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation."

I'd guess they are in order of decreasing probability.

Brent

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