An intuition pump I use to think about the level of effort required to achieve true AI is that it takes a human brain at least a year or two of continuous training before it results in a talking human. Several more years before you get to to the point where you can't easily trick that little human into believing just about anything.
Even if we're talking about an AI whose principle workings are not inspired by biological brains, I still think this is a useful measuring stick, for what it suggests about the amount of organization that must occur - however it occurs - to enable a computing device to respond in a generally intelligent way to its given environment. Terren On Fri, Jun 13, 2014 at 7:35 AM, Russell Standish <li...@hpcoders.com.au> wrote: > On Fri, Jun 13, 2014 at 01:44:25AM -0700, Pierz wrote: > > Yes. But I have to wonder what we're doing wrong, because any > sophisticated > > piece of modern software such as a modern OS or even this humble mailing > > list/forum software we are using is already "hugely mind-bogglingly > > incremental". It has evolved over decades of incremental improvement > > involving thousands upon thousands of workers building up layers of > > increasing abstraction from the unfriendly silicon goings-on down below. > > And yet Siri, far from being a virtual Scarlett Johannson, is still > pretty > > much dumb as dog-shit (though she has some neat bits of crystallised > > intelligence built in. Inspired by "She" I asked her what she was > wearing, > > and she said, "I can't tell you but it doesn't come off."). Well, I'm > still > > agnostic on "comp", so I don't have to decide whether this conspicuous > > failure represents evidence against computationalism. I do however > consider > > the bullish predictions of the likes of Deutsch (and even our own dear > > Bruno) that we shall be uploading our brains or something by the end of > the > > century or sooner to be deluded. Deutsch wrote once (BoI?) that the > > computational power required for human intelligence is already present > in a > > modern laptop; we just haven't had the programming breakthrough yet. I > > think that is preposterous and can hardly credit he actually believes it. > > > > It overstates the facts somewhat - a modern laptop is probably still > about 3 orders of magnitude less powerful than a human brain, but with > Moore's law, that gap will be closed in about 15 years. > > However, it is also true that having a 1000-fold more powerful > computer does not get you human intelligence, so the programming > breakthrough is still required. > > Cheers > -- > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > Prof Russell Standish Phone 0425 253119 (mobile) > Principal, High Performance Coders > Visiting Professor of Mathematics hpco...@hpcoders.com.au > University of New South Wales http://www.hpcoders.com.au > > Latest project: The Amoeba's Secret > (http://www.hpcoders.com.au/AmoebasSecret.html) > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Everything List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. > Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
