On Wed, Dec 24, 2014 'Chris de Morsella' via Everything List < [email protected]> wrote:
> > > The Monterey reserves as stated by the EIA in their very highly visible > projections they made in 2011 accounted for well over 60% of the TOTAL > tight oil reserves in the USA > I'm sorry Chris but that simply isn't true. Yes the Monterey shale reserve was vastly overestimated, at one time they thought it contained 15.4 billion barrels of oil but the true figure is less than a billion. However just one oil shale deposit in the USA, the Green River Formation, contains 1466 billion barrels of oil, nearly 100 times what Monterey was thought to contain even at it's peak. So although embarrassing the overestimate doesn't substantially change anything. >>If you don't like the way they do it please describe the far superior >> method that you have developed for estimating how much oil and gas in the >> ground can be economically extracted. I'm all ears. > > > > I am not the one calling myself "The Energy Information Agency of the > United States of America" now am I. You give me the same monetary, human, > legal and political resources as the EIA and in five years I will give you > numbers. Deal? > But today is not not 5 years from now and you have zero monetary, human, legal and political resources and yet you claim to know exactly how much gas and oil is in the ground in the USA that can be extracted economically; all I want to know is how you acquired that information. >The shale play already has gone up John - it has sucked in trillions of > dollars Bullshit. > and made the insiders billions of dollars. True. > > What the hell do you think HAS BEEN happening during the past four years? > What I think has happened is that the price of oil has dropped from $147 to $60, and that is not a estimate or a opinion or a prediction, that my friend is a fact. And you can wave your hands around all you want but it won't change that monumentally important facet of reality. > >>Since the value of a energy derivative is a function of the value of the >> oil (or gas) in the ground, and since the value of a barrel of oil is less >> than half what it was just a few years ago then of course the value of >> those energy derivatives are going to go down too. But you need to put your >> money where your mouth is, you think the drop in the cost of oil is a very >> temporary thing, therefore you should be buying those energy derivatives as >> fast as you can. And you should be buying them on margin to give yourself >> leverage, of course if you're wrong then the leverage works against you but >> I'm sure there is no possibility you're wrong. > > > > You should not be giving others free advice John. > You're right, I should have charged you for such valuable advice because if you follow it you will became fabulously rich, or at least you will if you really are smarter than the collective wisdom of millions of people on this matter, that is to say if you really are smarter than the market. > >>Bullshit, nobody promised endless supplies of anything. > > > > Bullshit -- read the press releases > I'd love to read them but I can't seem to find these false press reports you keep refer to, please show me some > > The shale boom was very much presented as being able to supply the US > with a secure and almost inexhaustible supply of fossil energy > I don't know what "almost inexhaustible" means but we are not going to run out of shale oil in your lifetime or that of your children. The I*nternational Energy Agency, which has nothing to do with the government of the USA and is in fact based in Paris, says that there are 4.8 trillion barrels of shale oil in the world with 3.7 trillion barrels of it in the USA, although only 1 trillion can be economically recoverable with existing technology. The amount of conventional oil that exists, not just in Saudi Arabia, not just in OPEC, but in the entire world is 1.3 trillion barrels. And that's why I say **Saudi Arabia will run out of oil before the USA runs out of oil.* >>It's only right and just that low cost producers put high cost producers > of oil or of anything else out of business, so if OPEC wishes to keep the > shale people out of the oil business they're going to have to keep their > production high enough that oil costs less than what the shale people cam > make it for. Currently it costs between $95 and $30 to produce a barrel of > oil from shale depending on the particulars of the geology, and as > technology improves the cost will go down. That explains why $147 for a > barrel of oil as it was at its peak in 2008 is not sustainable however much > OPEC may wish it were, and Saudi Arabia will run out of oil before the USA > runs out of shale. > > > > You have bought into the line presented by the cornucopean press > releases hook line and sinker. SHale oil does not cost $30 a barrel to > produce. > Wikipedia thinks it's between $95 and $25 but I think even under the best circumstances it would be closer to $30. And it's true that on average it's about twice that, if it only cost $30 to produce a barrel of then OPEC would be forced to sell oil at that price, but on average it's closer to $60, and it's not a coincidence that's about what OPEC is selling its oil for these days. But as technology improved the price will drop. > > Sure there is some oil and gas in those shale formations, but not > nearly as much as the grossly unreliable EIA has been reporting. > How the hell do you know that? And it's not just the EIA, virtually all the oil experts say there is much more shale oil on this planet that conventional oil, and most of it is in the USA. Could all the experts be wrong about this? Sure, but it's far more likely that you are the one that's wrong. > > Saudi Arabia IS the world's low cost producer. The Saudi's CAN afford > this price war > If it's a war then Saudi Arabia is a conscientious objector because they are NOT the cause of the massive oil price drop, they did NOT increase oil production, the USA did. John K Clark -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. 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