On 11 Jul 2016, at 13:49, Bruce Kellett wrote:
On 11/07/2016 9:31 pm, Bruno Marchal wrote:
Holiday Exercise:
A guy undergoes the Washington Moscow duplication, starting again
from Helsinki.
Then in Moscow, but not in Washington, he (the one in Moscow of
course) undergoes a similar Sidney-Beijing duplication.
I write P(H->M) the probability in H to get M.
In Helsinki, he tries to evaluate his chance to get Sidney.
With one reasoning, he (the H-guy) thinks that P(H-M) = 1/2, and
that P(M-S) = 1/2, and so conclude (multiplication of independent
probability) that P(H-S) = 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4.
But with another reasoning, he thinks that the duplications give
globally a triplication, leading eventually to a copy in W, a copy
in S and a copy in B, and so, directly conclude P(H-S) = 1/3.
So, is it 1/4 or 1/3 ?
Neither. The probability that the guy starting from Helsinki gets to
Sydney is unity.
Try to convince the guy who gets to Beijing, or the one who stayed in
Washington. He knows that the probability evaluated in Helsinki was
not P(Sidney) = 1.
This is the problem with probabilities in the MWI -- how do you
interpret probabilities when all possible outcomes occur with
probability one?
The probabilities concern the relative first person experiences.
Computationalism guaranties that there will be only one outcome.
Bruno
Bruce
Can you modify a bit the protocol so that we get any of those
results?
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