On 11/07/2016 9:31 pm, Bruno Marchal wrote:
*Holiday Exercise:*
A guy undergoes the Washington Moscow duplication, starting again from
Helsinki.
Then in Moscow, but not in Washington, he (the one in Moscow of
course) undergoes a similar Sidney-Beijing duplication.
I write P(H->M) the probability in H to get M.
In Helsinki, he tries to evaluate his chance to get Sidney.
With one reasoning, he (the H-guy) thinks that P(H-M) = 1/2, and that
P(M-S) = 1/2, and so conclude (multiplication of independent
probability) that P(H-S) = 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4.
But with another reasoning, he thinks that the duplications give
globally a triplication, leading eventually to a copy in W, a copy in
S and a copy in B, and so, directly conclude P(H-S) = 1/3.
So, is it 1/4 or 1/3 ?
Neither. The probability that the guy starting from Helsinki gets to
Sydney is unity. This is the problem with probabilities in the MWI --
how do you interpret probabilities when all possible outcomes occur with
probability one?
Bruce
Can you modify a bit the protocol so that we get any of those results?
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