Only 1.9% of the people who got the 1918 flu died of it,  but so many got
sick it ended up killing 675,000 people in the USA alone and 35 million
worldwide. Because it's so new the death rate for the Corvid 19 virus is
more uncertain but it's estimated to be between 2% and 6%, and it shows a
disturbingly long incubation period during which a person is infectious but
displays no obvious symptoms of being ill; it can be diagnosed with DNA
detection kits but those are in extremely short supply. Administering large
amounts of Corvid-19 antibodies would almost certainly cut the death rate
considerably but you'd need massive amounts of it and, like DNA detection
kits, we no longer have the infrastructure to rapidly mass produce it.

Obama created a pandemic czar to deal with just this sort of thing and to
coordinate the activities of the various federal agencies, but in the
spring of 2018 the pandemic czar position was eliminated and the entire
chain of command was fired, and the disease fighting budgets of the Centers
for Disease Control, the National Safety Council, the Department of
Homeland Security, and Health and Human Services was cut by 15 billion
dollars. The infrastructure can be rebuilt but that takes not just money
but also time, and that is time we may not have. In 2017 Bill Gates told
national security advisor H.R. McMaster that cutting the disease fighting
budgets of federal agencies would "*significantly increase the probability
of a large and lethal modern-day pandemic occurring in our lifetimes*".
Maybe Corvid-19 will just peter out but I wouldn't count on it, it's
looking increasingly likely that Mr. Gates was right. We're not ready.

John K Clark

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