On Sun, Aug 9, 2020 at 1:24 PM Jason Resch <[email protected]> wrote:
*> You, as well as most of the media write ups are confusing "did not prove > a benefit" with "proved no benefit". * > I'm not confused at all. No study has proven that leeches have no benefit in the treatment of COVID-19, but there is also no statistically relevant evidence that it does, so scientists could more productively spend their time studying things other than leeches. I mean it's not as if there are no other promising leads. And this sort of thing is the rule not the exception, from cancer to aids to Alzheimer's disease to you name it the medical literature is cram full of examples of drugs and treatments that hinted in very early small scale studies that they might be beneficial but were later shown to be useless or even harmful in larger more careful studies. Hydroxychloroquine is not even a controversial drug as far as the scientific community is concerned, the opinion is almost universal that it's just like most new ideas in science, it didn't work out, and so it's time to move on to other things; The drug only becomes controversial when fascist presidents and nincompoop Fox pundits enter into the mix. > a statistically powerful result were all late stage studies. Considered statistically powerful by people who don't understand statistics, and Humans don't have an intuitive ability to assess probabilities, we need to calculate them. For example: If AIDS is in 0.3% of the population and the false positive rate of an AIDS test is 1% and I take that test and test positive, is there a 99% probability that I really have AIDS? No, the chance would be 29.7%, (.003*[0.99/0.01]). > > *John treats HCQ like ESP, with no science behind it. * Not in the early days of 4 or 5 months ago, back then it was reasonable to be hopeful about it, but those who hold onto a blind belief in HCQ and refuse to even modify it one bit even now after much more information about it has come in then yes, they're just as fanatical as the ESP nuts. They will never EVER be satisfied with a negative result, they will ALWAYS want another larger study. > *in vitro studies clearly showed its anti-viral properties,* If in vitro studies were all that mattered people would've stopped dying from cancer decades ago. John K Clark -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv2HJWnjPR12CKGSOyLpeMhsHCd2beg5uuPcGrWOgDEwHQ%40mail.gmail.com.
