On 2/7/2022 3:33 PM, Terren Suydam wrote:
On Mon, Feb 7, 2022 at 5:25 PM John Clark <[email protected]> wrote:
On Mon, Feb 7, 2022 at 5:12 PM Terren Suydam
<[email protected]> wrote:
>> When you learned how to code did you have to reinvent all
the programming languages and techniques and do it all on
your own with no help from teachers or friends or books or
fellow coders? Did you have to rediscover the wheel?
/> Did AlphaZero get any help from humans?/
No, but then writing good code is fundamentally more difficult
than playing good chess. The rules of chess can be learned in five
minutes, learning the rules for writing computer code would take
considerably longer.
That's exactly my point. Chess represents a narrow enough domain, with
a limited enough set of operations, that makes it possible for an AI
to teach itself, at least since AlphaZero anyway (and this itself was
a huge achievement).
The problem with the real world of human enterprise (i.e. the domain
in which talk of replacing human programmers is relevant) is that AIs
currently cannot even be taught what the rules are, much less teach
themselves to improve within the constraints of those rules. One day
that will change, but we're not there yet. I say we're not even close.
The question is how much of human intelligence is inherent/genetic that
has evolved over half a million years or longer (they didn't start from
zero) vs how much a human programmer learns by example/experience/etc.
I don't think the latter is so great that an AI can't compare pretty
quickly if not now. The former, "hard-wired" part hasn't really been
tackled by neural network AIs. In animals and humans it evolved over a
long time and it was shaped by the environment and the sensors
available. From the machine learning stand point it's like making a
robot with sensors and actuators and neural nets, and then programming
in its goal, "Go forth and multiply." Its randomized neural nets are
short a few million years of training by nature. But given the
electronic v. wet speed difference plus some starting point better than
just randomized I expect it will get there in a decade or less.
Brent
Terren
John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis
<https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis>
mtl
rew
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