I found a very interesting article about when the AI intelligence explosion
will occur it's at:

AI takeoff Speed

I have picked out a few quotations from it that I like:

"The term “slow AI takeoff”, Davidson is a misnomer. Like skiing down the
side of Mount Everest, progress in AI capabilities can be simultaneously
gradual, continuous, fast, and terrifying. Specifically, he predicts it
will take about 3 years to go from AIs that can do 20% of all human jobs
(weighted by economic value) to AIs that can do 100%, with significantly
superhuman AIs within a year after that. [...]  It seems like maybe dumb
people can do 20% of jobs, so an AI that was as smart as a dumb human could
reach the 20% bar. The compute difference between dumb and smart humans,
based on brain size and neuron number
, is less than 1 order of magnitude  so this suggests a very small gap. But
AI can already do some things dumb humans can’t (like write coherent essays
with good spelling and punctuation), so maybe this is a bad way of looking
at things."

"It takes much more compute to train an AI than to run it. Once you have
enough compute to train an AI smart enough to do a lot of software
research, you have enough compute to run 100 million copies of that AI. 100
million copies is enough to do a lot of software research. If software
research is parallelizable (ie if nine women can produce one baby per month
- the analysis will investigate this assumption later), that means you can
do it really fast."

"Around 2040, AI will reach the point where it can do a lot of the AI and
chip research process itself. Research will speed up VERY VERY FAST. AI
will make more progress in two years than in decades of business-as-usual.
Most of this progress will be in software, although hardware will also get
a big boost. My best guess is that we go from AGI (AI that can perform
~100% of cognitive tasks as well as a human professional) to
superintelligence (AI that very significantly surpasses humans at ~100% of
cognitive tasks) in 1 - 12 months."

 "It intuitively feels like lemurs, gibbons, chimps, and homo erectus were
all more or less just monkey-like things plus or minus the ability to wave
sharp sticks - and then came homo sapiens, with the potential to build
nukes and travel to the moon. In other words, there wasn’t a smooth
evolutionary landscape, there was a discontinuity where a host of new
capabilities became suddenly possible. Once AI crosses that border, we
should expect to be surprised by how much more powerful it becomes."

"Sometime in the next few years or decades, someone will create an AI which
can perform an appreciable fraction of all human tasks. Millions of copies
will be available almost immediately, with many running at
faster-than-human speed. Suddenly, everyone will have access to a
super-smart personal assistant who can complete cognitive tasks in seconds.
A substantial fraction of the workforce will be fired; the remainder will
see their productivity skyrocket. The pace of technological progress will
advance by orders of magnitude, including progress on even smarter AI
assistants. Within months, years at most, your assistant will be smarter
than you are and hundreds of millions of AIs will be handling every facet
of an increasingly futuristic-looking economy."

John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis

You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups 
"Everything List" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email 
to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit 

Reply via email to