On Mon, Aug 5, 2024 at 1:56 PM Keith Henson <[email protected]> wrote:
> > > *> If the model is correct, it would be predictive. As it is, we can look > at the historical record. And, indeed, we see that resource shortages or > perceptions of them preceded wars and related social disruptions. * That's what I'm talking about, your theory can make "predictions" about history, that is to say you can make predictions about things AFTER they happened but not before, and therefore those predictions are of no use whatsoever and it's not a scientific theory. Sometimes shortages occur, and after that wars sometimes happen, and sometimes they do not. In the mid 1970s the US had a severe oil shortage, far far more severe than any shortage we've had since, but it didn't lead to a war or to a Trump-like demagogue gaining power. So what was so special about 2016, and in 2015 did you predict it would be special? What about the November election, can you predict what the outcome will be? Before Biden dropped out I thought I could, but now I don't know. > * >I think it does have predictive power. It is consistent > with evolutionary psychology.* For a psychological theory to be true it needs to be consistent with Evolution, but it takes more than that because being consistent with Evolution does not necessarily mean it's true. John K Clark -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv2n9QHPaNmPgwdja%3DfNQ7BbjCC5_xMZUGhEvrpr%3DBooBA%40mail.gmail.com.
