This presumes that the function of "e-mail" remains stagnant.  If it
doesn't, the "pure hardware" box has to chase a moving target, which is
not an easy thing to do.

Doesn't just about every company that has a "hardware" firewall also
have a firewall administrator?

Not that any of your forecasts scare me.  I'm retiring within 20 years.

Ed Crowley MCSE+Internet MVP kcCC+I
Tech Consultant
hp Services
Protecting the world from PSTs and Bricked Backups!


-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[mailto:bounce-exchange-94760@;ls.swynk.com] On Behalf Of Dupler, Craig
Sent: Friday, November 08, 2002 11:30 AM
To: Exchange Discussions
Subject: RE: somewhat OT


So Roger, does this mean that you are getting ready for the sobering
messages?

First, let me say that I am not privy to any advanced product planning
in what I am about to say, and am only speculating.  I fully expect to
see a pure hardware version of an entry level Exchange Server within ten
years. The design goal would have to be such that a professional sys
admin is not required.  My guess is that initially it would be targeted
at that same mid-tier that you identify, but perhaps a bit lower (25-100
seats) at first. It has to go that way.  If you look at what is
happening in networking as a whole, you have companies like LinkSys and
D-Link that are almost totally focused on idiot proof boxes for basic
functionality.  Intel, Nortel and more recently Microsoft have all gone
chasing after this space as well.  It only makes sense that this space
will grow up to include a line of mini-blade or little box headless
servers that do all of the basics (mail, telephony, web hosting, etc.).
General purpose storage and print servicing is already happening.

As we all know, little machines grow up to become big machines.  20
years from now, it is not unreasonable to project that even quite large
systems will be simple hardware modules that you add to your pile of
network pieces.


-----Original Message-----
From: Roger Seielstad [mailto:roger.seielstad@;inovis.com]
Sent: Friday, November 08, 2002 11:15 AM
To: Exchange Discussions
Subject: RE: somewhat OT


Simple. Its not cost effective to outsourse at the levels they target.
They missed the boat from day one.

There is a relative break even point for having your own "IT" staff,
generally in the 25-75 user range, depending on what your company
actually does. More than 100 or so, and you really need someone. Once
you've got someone inhouse, they tend to have to be a jack-of-all-trades
type, and do a lot of fumbling through. But the job gets done.

Traditionally, an NT box with Exchange 5.5 Standard wasn't really that
expensive - you could probably do that for <$10k. Win2k with E2k has
raised the prices a bit, but not exhorbinantly such. With leasing
options, that server could be a few hundred a month.

Like any service provider, the good fruit is in the middle of the tree,
not the low hanging stuff. SO they tended to target 500 person plus
orgs. This 600-ish person company has 8 sysadmins - we have enough time
to manage Exchange. Without it, maybe we'd have one less headcount, but
I'd bet that the headcount loss isn't drastically different than the
cost of 600 users' outsourced mail needs.

Now, the other side of this equation is that email is a core business
need for most companies, and isn't that hard to at least get running[1].
More specialized things, like e-commerce and line of business apps make
more sense in a managed environment. Email never did.

------------------------------------------------------
Roger D. Seielstad - MCSE
Sr. Systems Administrator
Inovis - Formerly Harbinger and Extricity
Atlanta, GA

[1] Running well is a different question, but running and running well
aren't the issue here.


> -----Original Message-----
> From: Greg Deckler [mailto:greg@;infonition.com]
> Sent: Friday, November 08, 2002 12:25 PM
> To: Exchange Discussions
> Subject: Re: somewhat OT
> 
> 
> You've hit the major players. The entire email hosting
> business has pretty
> much flopped and consolidated. Critical Path handed over its hosted
> corporate messaging services to HP. United Messaging was acquired by
> Agilera. Commtouch sold its hosted Exchange business to TeleComputing.
> 
> USA.NET and Mi8 are still hanging in there, for now. But this entire 
> market space has just been decimated of late. I still think that the 
> business case is there for outsourced messaging, but apparently not 
> enough people have the same attitude that I do.
> 
> Anyone else care to comment on why they think that this
> market space has
> flopped? One would think that in a time of economic hardship, 
> companies
> would really be looking to outsource anything and everything 
> they can in
> order to lower costs. If outsourced corporate messaging can't 
> make it in
> today's economy, I have serious doubts that it will ever make 
> it. But the
> question is why? Outsourced messaging holds the promise of 
> lower costs,
> flexibility and the ability to focus on one's core business. 
> In addition,
> many of the outsourced providers can put together systems 
> that have a mix
> of high-end and low-end mailbox services that are all tied 
> together as a
> single system. This means that companies can have Exchange 
> mailboxes for
> those that need it and low-cost IMAP/POP mailboxes for 
> everyone else and
> the outsourcer ties it all together to look like a single 
> email system. So
> why did this market fail?
> 
> > Who all is left in the Hosted E2K (asp-model) game?=20
> > 
> > USA.NET?
> > MI8?=20
> > Critical Path?
> > 
> > others?=20
> > 
> > j
> > Regards,=20
> > 
> > 
> > John Henley
> 
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