--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Peter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Just another smear by the liberal, misogynist, media who can't stand that a woman of true values and integrity with a plastic Jesus in her heart has stepped-up to the plate and hit a grandslam for the red,white and blue! Go Alaska! > > > --- On Sat, 9/13/08, sparaig <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > From: sparaig <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > Subject: [FairfieldLife] Re: Matt Damon, bullshit artist > > To: FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com > > Date: Saturday, September 13, 2008, 6:05 AM > > --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, > > "shempmcgurk" <shempmcgurk@> wrote: > > > > > > --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, "Rick > > Archer" <rick@> wrote: > > > > > > > > From: FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com > > > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > On Behalf Of shempmcgurk > > > > Sent: Friday, September 12, 2008 11:40 PM > > > > To: FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com > > > > Subject: [FairfieldLife] Matt Damon, bullshit > > artist > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com > > > > <mailto:FairfieldLife%40yahoogroups.com> , > > "Rick Archer" <rick@> > > > wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > http://www.searchme.com/#/0/ > > > > > > > > > <http://www.searchme.com/#/0/&pi=11/&stack=19fee/&ci=all/&session=0448 > > > F> > > > > > > &pi=11/&stack=19fee/&ci=all/&session=0448F > > > > C61D4D > > > > > > > 3B2FF77E257D06F3A27CF2284EB59/&vs=stacksState/ > > > > > > > > > > > > > In the video, Matt Damon says if you look up the > > actuarial tables > > > > there is a one in three chance that McCain will > > die within the next > > > > four years. > > > > > > > > Damon then boldly challenges us to "do the > > actuarial tables". > > > > > > > > Well, I did...and Damon is off...WAY off. > > > > > > > > The actuarial tables supplied by the U.S. > > government indicate a one > > > > in seven chance, NOT a one in three chance, as > > Damon claims. > > > > > > > > Take a look at > > http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html > > > > > > > > If you add up the four years for males from ages > > 72 to 75 you get > > > > 0.151985 which translates to about 1/7th or one > > in 7. > > > > > > > > Did you factor in his several bouts with serious > > skin cancer? He > > > had a > > > > growth removed just a month or so ago. > > > > > > > > > > No, I didn't. > > > > > > There are, literally, dozens of variables aside from > > age and gender > > > (the only two variables in the actuarial charts I > > linked to above) > > > that are factored into an individual's actuarial > > rating and, yes, > > > cancer history is an important one. > > > > > > Another one is the lifespan of one's parents; for > > example McCain's 96 > > > year old mother, who is still alive. > > > > > > However, one cannot take ALL the variables and make an > > effective > > > rating for a given individual without having access to > > one's full > > > medical records and history. > > > > > > I doubt the Hollywood star Matt Damon had access to > > those. > > > > > > Absent those records, one can only rely upon the > > general age/gender > > > actuarial tables, which is what I linked to. > > > > > > By the way, another factor that would have to be > > considered would be > > > profession. Professions such as airline pilot or > > trapeze artist gets > > > special ratings (i.e. costs extra premium on an > > insurance policy). > > > And, of course, one of the most dangerous jobs in the > > world > > > is "president of the United States" because > > of 43 that have existed, > > > 4 have been assassinated. > > > > > > But that "rating" would apply not only to > > McCain but to Obama as well. > > > > > > Damon probably meant that McCain had a 1 in 3 chance > > of dying over > > > the period of 8 years, which is two terms as > > president. That would > > > have been more accurate, but Damon made specific > > reference to one > > > term. > > > > > > And, of course, a candidate for president only runs > > for one term at a > > > time. > > > > > > > He probably misread: > > > > http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=253B8DF9-18FE-70B2- > > A8961A86DC5B16C7
Yes, I think you're right, Spare Egg. As I surmised in a separate response to Rick Archer, Damon's 1 in 3 figure only works if one is considering 8 years, which is two presidential terms in office. Of course, candidates only run for one term at a time. Thanks for finding that Politico.com link as I think it was the cause of Damon's confusion which, of course, caused his reasoning to be off by 133%. > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------ > > > > To subscribe, send a message to: > > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > Or go to: > > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ > > and click 'Join This Group!'Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > >
