Note that Carl Sagan is only talking about our ONE galaxy when there's billions of galaxies in the rest of the universe -- so, even if there are but 10 technological civilizations in the Milky Way, multiply that by billions for the number in the universe as a whole.
Just in our own solar system we see very precisely that there are at least four orbs upon/within which our own Earthly life can still survive as extremophiles. It seems very reasonable that "places where life could live" are far more numerous than "places where life could emerge in a Goldilocks Zone," but life splashes off planets a lot and propagation in any given system seems to be a gimme. Interstellar distances and radiation being so intense, none of our Earthly organisms could last much more than two million years inside a rock traveling through space, so only the closest stars to us would be unlikely to have had an exchange with us, because five billions years is exactly a plush enough time period to expect splashed off rocks from here to get to there at the splash-speeds we'd expect -- even 50,000 miles per hour splash speed would take a rock 55,000 years to get to our closest neighbor. Also, being so close to us, our larger than normal Moon stabilized our gyroscope and gave us tides such that there was a thorough mixing of chemicals with the land's margins and that, in low tides, created mud flats upon which fish could cyclically "try out their legs." Not that a sea creature could never develop technology but that land creatures have a better shot at, say, discovering fire. Our larger than normal Moon also gets hit by meteors et al and has saved us a tremendous pounding that would have made life have to start from almost scratch many many times. Without the moon (and Jupiter) guarding Earth, life might have to take millions -- even billions more years to evolve to technological stages....yet, our Earth is expected to have billions more years to exist before the sun goes nova. So Earth is rare in that we had the "lucky hit" that formed the moon, and we cannot expect all systems to create planets with such large moons, so that would be a fine nuancing of the Drake Equation to factor this in. Another thing to keep on the front burner is that it is very likely that any technological civilization might only be "grossly loud" in its communications for a very short amount of time, say a thousand years at most, and that at some point early in a civilization's technological evolution more subtle methods of broadcasting would be used that our present technology cannot instrumentally "catch." We don't know what that "reason to go quiet" advancement might be -- quantum entanglement? -- but it makes sense that radiation pollution would be curbed by a society at some point. Within a sphere with a diameter of 110 light years -- a "good ham operator" should be able to pick up I Love Lucy broadcasts from us -- the signals having reached that far out by now, and, well, we might be "the noisy neighbors" to the intelligent species of our galaxy. My best guess is that billions of years ago at least one civilization "made it all the way," and that means immortality, omniscience, infinite intelligence, instantaneity of communications, and "a whole 'nother mindset" we cannot even begin to grasp. Underline: immortality. Think of Star Trek's tremendous advancement beyond today's science, and then remember that episode where they met the "God Apollo." He had an instrumentality beyond Star Trek's level, and suchly might we expect that the more advanced species simply don't even want to "go there" when it comes to poking around Earth. Just as you and I would not go to Toys R Us and buy a ton of toys we'd have loved as ten year olds -- we have the money but not the mindset any more, see? Same deal with getting older and richer technologically -- who plays Pong anymore? Edg --- In [email protected], "John" <jr_...@...> wrote: > > > > --- In [email protected], "Hugo" <fintlewoodlewix@> wrote: > > > > > > > > --- In [email protected], "John" <jr_esq@> wrote: > > > > > > Awesome to think about. But where are they? > > > > They are probably busy not existing. Consider the fact > > that there is only complex life on Earth because DNA isn't > > perfect at it's job, if it didn't make a few teeny mistakes > > every time it made a copy of itself the complications that > > compounded to make all life we see today wouldn't have > > happened, it would still be bacteria at most floating about > > in the primordial sea. > > > > That's one fluke but consider also the many different types > > of complex life that *could* have developed a self aware > > consciousness but didn't. How many millions of generations > > went by before the particular events that forced us into > > the state we are happened? If consciousness like ours is a > > given whenever you have life why did it wait so long and > > to be the only one on Earth so far? If we disappeared is > > there any other animal that looks like it might follow in > > our footsteps and develop an advanced culture? They all > > seem happy scratching their arses and eating each other. > > To evolve complex behaviour requires a pressure from the > > environment, what happened to us that could happen to > > something else and have the same effect? > > > > Another big problem with the 'where is everybody?' idea > > is that without a long carboniferous period we wouldn't > > have had the energy to create our civilisation and probably > > wouldn't have had the time to do all the required science. > > How many other potential life harbouring planets have a > > huge supply of free energy lying around like the Earth does? > > > > Just a few of the variables you have to toy with when > > considering life on other planets but if Earth is anything > > to go by you need a *lot* of coincedences for life like > > us to get going and even more for us to be self aware so > > how can anyone claim it's likely to have happened twice > > just because there are rather a lot of planets on which > > it could have happened. > > > > I doubt we are alone as far as life - as in microbes and > > moss - are concerned but something we could talk to is > > going to be a hell of a lot rarer. It happened once here, > > once in 4 billion years. And it rather goes without saying > > that it needn't have, it took a very particular set of > > circumstances to a very particular type of animal. The > > odds *against* life like us must be absolutely astronomical. > > > > And it has to be said it is *very* quiet out there. > > Please, see my reply to Edge's post relating to the calculation of advanced > civilizations. > > http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dilKJ6uLCc8&feature=related > > Also, a scientist from the Vatican's Observatory, who happens to be a Jesuit > priest, presented his ideas about the universe a film clip that was posted > here several weeks ago. Regarding the evolution of life in the universe, he > quipped that "God does not play dice. But He loaded it." (so that life may > evolve without violating the rules of physics or natural law.) > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h76JFOuCpXI&NR=1 > > > > > >
