In the postcount recently, you and I were on either side of Barry. It looked like this:
Judy ^ Barry :-0 Jim ^ --- In [email protected], "authfriend" <jstein@...> wrote: > > --- In [email protected], obbajeeba <no_reply@> wrote: > > > > Ah, this is true! What about the "poker face?" The one who > > says nothing because of fear on what others may see? > > What cracks me up is the thought of a not-so-bright > hustler mistaking another hustler for a mark. That > would be a very entertaining game to watch. > > There was a great article in the NYTimes this weekend > entitled "Don't Blink! The Hazards of Confidence." It's > mostly about stock-picking, but the conclusion may apply > across a wide range of activities involving the use of > intuition: > > "To know whether you can trust a particular intuitive > judgment, there are two questions you should ask: Is the > environment in which the judgment is made sufficiently > regular to enable predictions from the available > evidence?...Do the professionals have an adequate > opportunity to learn the cues and the regularities?... > > "Many of the professionals we encounter easily pass both > tests, and their off-the-cuff judgments deserve to be > taken seriously. In general, however, you should not > take assertive and confident people at their own > evaluation unless you have independent reason to believe > that they know what they are talking about. > > "Unfortunately, this advice is difficult to follow: > overconfident professionals sincerely believe they have > expertise, act as experts and look like experts. You > will have to struggle to remind yourself that they may > be in the grip of an illusion." > > http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/23/magazine/dont-blink-the-hazards-of-confidence.html?pagewanted=1&hpw > > http://tinyurl.com/5wvklv3 > > (Interestingly, the illustration on the first page of the > article is of a smiling dude swimming confidently between > two sharks.) >
