> I suggest you are not getting it, or simply poorly informed about the > housing markets in the US. First, how will foreign invesors, as a > class, be richer if a global bubble occurs -- which is what what I am suggesting. >>
The most ridiculous suggestion. There might be little green men on mars too. Gobal bubble burst. HOW? >>> Even without such, most foreign investors are just that: investors -- looking for a return. In most major markets, the fundamentals are so out of whack, the rent/mortgage rates (30-50%), and the affordability rates (15% or so) that the probability of a positive return from either rentals or selling appreciated property is fast becoming minimal. Losses, large losses, are gaining a much higher probability. >>> So you are saying less people will be able to buy a house so more people will be renting so rental acoomodation will become more scarce so rent prices will rise so people with mortgages can rent their place out and pay the mortgage. In addition renters will get fed up with rising rent which the market will bear unless there is mass unemployment on a scale not seen since the great depression. So renters will (as always) get fed up renting and will start buying so house prices will continuw to rise so there is no real bubble burst....just a normal market wiggle. <<<If the foreign investors want to wait it out, 10 - 20 years while the > markets readjust, then fine, >>. 10 years+, as ALL intelligent investors look at it. Yes you have hit the nail on the head. There are million of intelligent investors in the world who look at gains over 10 to 15 years....not year by year. They year by year types are the ones that CAUSED the tech bubble in the late '90s. housing may be a good long-term > investment for such. But the current housing investor market is > generally much shorter term.>>> Then tough luck to them. Most people are not in it to make a killing. Most people are in it to live in their own place and if they make monety great, but if not they at least don't throw 10 to 20,000 a year down the drain in rent money. (100,000 to 200,000 lost in only 10 years). It is these people that are fueling the market. > > > > >> If your theorized crash occurs then that makes the US poorer > > than some other countries who will be perfectly happy to buy > property at the meagre prices they are seeing, wether there is a > prevailing lower market rate or not. > > > > With prices dropping globally. They are -- from London to > > Austrailia to Spain to China.>> > > > > > > Jya...right. House prices have been dropping in China for a long > > time.....jya ....right. > > Actually thats a direct quote from the PBS Lehr News hour tonight. > There has been substantial state-financed overbuilding of upscale > condos in Peiking, Shanghai and other areas, and prices -- the report > said, have dropped 30% in the last couple of years.>>>> > > > > > > In fact, this very effect will be enough to keep house prices > > > rising. We live in a global economy. The nouveau rich in Russia or > > > Canada will come and buy your cheap little $300,000 dollar house > in Boston. > > I am still waiting for you to buy the portfolio of overpriced > properties that I can structure for you. If you are not willing to > buy, your points are just empty and uninformed idle banter>>> Yes Mr. Rich man. Sorry ain't got that kinda money to buy a bunch of houses, and I'm glad I don't. Most intelligent people don't want that much wealth, they just a house of their own and a car and a decent job they like with prospects and a decent pension. This is what most people actually want. Being rich is boring. > Yes, wages have to go up 4 fold in order for 50% of the population to > be able to afford the median priced home in major markets. That will > take a while. Or prices will have to drop 30-40% >>> True to some extent but mostly in California dude, but not elsewhere. If a house is 250,000 then the monthly mortgage payment will be around $2,300 including property taxes. Most working couples (on say 35,000 and 40,000 a year = 70,000 total) can just about afford that. And that is what mortgage companies look at. It is $24,000 a year, as opposed to about 15,000 a year they would have to pay in rent for something decent. With a bit of inginuity most working people can do it...though it has never been easy. Once they get older and are on 45,000 plus 55,000, then it is getting easier and easier, plus the equity goes up over 10 years. If analysts such as the ones you are quoting are going by average saleries of a single person then they are not very good analysts. Working couples buy houses probably the most....and they fuel house price growth over time. MAIN POINT: Most ordinary people understand the above 10 -15 year inverstment period, and they are fueling the house buying econmoy in the 150,000 to 450,000 range. Their logic will continue to fuel it . (barring the black hole of Iraq and other disasters) Without the over-analysis that this guy does on this website....this first chart speaks for itslef: http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2005/20050701.html ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
