--- In [email protected], akasha_108 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> LB, (or anyone familiar with the study)
> 
> Per your prior note, 
> 
> What was added in the 25% second round of analysis, relative to the
> first round, the 17% results? Was it the weather variables or Index? 
> 
> Or was weather  included in the first round of analysis? If weather
> was in the first round. what was added in the second round. 
> 
> When where the other control variables, other crime factors such as
> police on the street, police practices, LE funding, etc introduced?

********

Clearing up a minor point on my own initial "lowball" estimate of 17%:

PANDITS HAD BEEN PART OF THE  ORIGINAL PROTOCOL. They had been bought and paid 
for. Then they didn't show. So the group that participated was not as powerful 
as the 
group that had originally been anticipated.

After the scaling back of original reports claiming 25% reduction (might have 
been 20% 
come to think of it), there was an ongoing effort of several months to make the 
data fit. 
My graduate student friend Mark ______ (last name still not remembered) was a 
part of 
this. I had a standing joke with him about it: whenever I bumped into him I 
would ask, 
"Seen any good statistics lately?" Then he would give me an informal update. 
Let me be 
clear that this was not a conspiratorial relationship. Mark was completely sold 
on the 
program and convinced that the correct interpretation of the data would reveal 
the results. 
I was just an innocent bystander. Sort of.

Since I was not recording all the details for posterity at the time, only the 
impressions 
remain. The impressions indicated that it took quite an effort to "rectify" the 
findings 
based on their original model. I do not remember a single alteration or 
adjustment, but 
something more like a scavenger hunt.

It is interesting to me how we are all quibbling about the details. If anything 
is revealed 
here, it is that the "demonstration" demonstrated nothing. Except, perhaps, to 
the 
participants.

Personally, I thought the course was a great experience. I doubt if anyone 
outside the 
course even remembers it. Certainly it is not being cited in all the journals 
as a profound 
feat of engineering in the domain of collective consciousness. Needless to say, 
this is a 
typical cult phenomenon—the insiders believing that their every breath shakes 
the world, 
the outsiders not even noticing.

L B S






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