--- In [email protected], "L B Shriver" 
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> --- In [email protected], akasha_108 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> 
wrote:
> >
> > LB, (or anyone familiar with the study)
> > 
> > Per your prior note, 
> > 
> > What was added in the 25% second round of analysis, relative to 
the
> > first round, the 17% results? Was it the weather variables or 
Index? 
> > 
> > Or was weather  included in the first round of analysis? If 
weather
> > was in the first round. what was added in the second round. 
> > 
> > When where the other control variables, other crime factors such 
as
> > police on the street, police practices, LE funding, etc 
introduced?
> 
> ********
> 
> Clearing up a minor point on my own initial "lowball" estimate of 
17%:
> 
> PANDITS HAD BEEN PART OF THE  ORIGINAL PROTOCOL. They had been 
bought and paid 
> for. Then they didn't show. So the group that participated was not 
as powerful as the 
> group that had originally been anticipated.
> 
> After the scaling back of original reports claiming 25% reduction 
(might have been 20% 
> come to think of it), there was an ongoing effort of several months 
to make the data fit. 
> My graduate student friend Mark ______ (last name still not 
remembered) was a part of 
> this. I had a standing joke with him about it: whenever I bumped 
into him I would ask, 
> "Seen any good statistics lately?" Then he would give me an 
informal update. Let me be 
> clear that this was not a conspiratorial relationship. Mark was 
completely sold on the 
> program and convinced that the correct interpretation of the data 
would reveal the results. 
> I was just an innocent bystander. Sort of.
> 
> Since I was not recording all the details for posterity at the 
time, only the impressions 
> remain. The impressions indicated that it took quite an effort 
to "rectify" the findings 
> based on their original model. I do not remember a single 
alteration or adjustment, but 
> something more like a scavenger hunt.
> 
> It is interesting to me how we are all quibbling about the details. 
If anything is revealed 
> here, it is that the "demonstration" demonstrated nothing. Except, 
perhaps, to the 
> participants.
> 
> Personally, I thought the course was a great experience. I doubt if 
anyone outside the 
> course even remembers it. Certainly it is not being cited in all 
the journals as a profound 
> feat of engineering in the domain of collective consciousness. 
Needless to say, this is a 
> typical cult phenomenon—the insiders believing that their every 
breath shakes the world, 
> the outsiders not even noticing.

This is a valid point, but there are plenty of examples in the 
scientific community of a study or even a mathematical technique 
being ignored for years, decades (or even a century in the case of 
the math) that later on are seen as ground-breaking.





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