--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, anony_sleuth_ff <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
wrote:
>
> --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, "authfriend" <jstein@> wrote:
> >
> > --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, anony_sleuth_ff <no_reply@> 
> > wrote:
> > <snip>
> > > Boeing options was my recollection from the video.
> > 
> > They may have said Boeing, but I've never heard
> > anything about funny business with Boeing options.
> > The video may have just gotten it wrong (which makes
> > you wonder how reliable the rest of it is).
> > 
> > <snip>
> > > I was simply referencing (my recollection of) the video, not
> > > definatively cataloging all claims of abnormal trading prior to 
> > > 9/11.
> > >?
> > > Your cited article, below, does provide some more extreme trading
> > > variations. I will look at the data. (Though the source seems to be
> > > some fringe group -- at first glance looks a kooky right-wing group,
> > > but thats a 10-second, non-firm impression.)
> > 
> > I think it is a fringe group, but it was the first
> > site I found.  There have been *many* articles on this,
> > including in the mainstream media.  This is just a
> > recap.
> > 
> > > "American Airlines saw a 6,000 percent jump in put options above
> > > normal the day before the attacks. However, there was no similar
> > > trading activity on any other airlines, according to market reports.
> > > 
> > > The brokerage houses that had offices in the WTC, Morgan Stanley and
> > > Merrill-Lynch, saw 27-fold and 12-fold increases in the purchases of
> > > put options on their respective shares between Sept. 7 and Sept. 
> > > 10."
> 
> 
> Ok I checked the video.About 5 minutes into it, it says,
> 
> On Sept 6, 3150 put options on AA 4x daily put volume average.
> On Sept 7, 27,294 put options on Boeing 5x daily put volume average.
> On Sept 10, 4516 put options on AA 11x daily put volume average.
> 
> So both were cited. There were more than 3x Boeing options than
American.
> 
> The above 11x is quite a bit smaller than 60x or "nearly 100x" cited
> by artical and you. 11x "seems" in normal range. 100x does seem high.
> And it all hinges on what period one uses for averaging. I will take a
> look at the raw data (one of these days, maybe sooner) and provide an
> assessment.


haha, I just noticed -- within 4 days, a less than 50% increase in AMR
puts volume was cited as resulting in almost a tripling in comparing
daily averages (4x vs 11x). Thus, either they are using bad data, OR
they are using a different interval of days to calculate daily
averages for sept 6 and sept 10. Which is totally bogus. 

Or simply using THAT day's average. Thats crap as far as seeing if the
figures are statistically "abnormal". The daily average should be
calculated over at least 30 trading days, better, over a year. 

The figures were sliced, diced and cherry picked.










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