--- In [email protected], anony_sleuth_ff <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > --- In [email protected], "authfriend" <jstein@> wrote: > > > > --- In [email protected], "shempmcgurk" <shempmcgurk@> > > wrote: > > > > > > --- In [email protected], "authfriend" <jstein@> > > > wrote: > > > > > > > > --- In [email protected], anony_sleuth_ff <no_reply@> > > > > wrote: > > > > <snip> > > > > [I wrote:] > > > > > > If so, you're aware that what the newspapers were > > > > > > reporting was that large numbers of financial agencies > > > > > > around the world were investigating the anomalous > > > > > > trades. I'm fairly confident that if it had all been > > > > > > mere speculation and "irrelevant," they wouldn't have > > > > > > bothered. > > Many things that are investigated turn out to be insignificant. To say > that an investigation legitimately creates confidence in wrongdoing is > parallel to saying someone is automatically guilty because they are as > suspect in an investigation -- prior to indictment, prior to trial. > > > > > The person I was responding to above, and several > > others--yourself included, earlier--have been** trying > > to say there wasn't anything unusual about the stock > > market activity prior to 9/11. > > Quite untrue. Being a major respondent, I am quite open to the > possibility that there was statistically significant anomolies in the > stock or options markets prior to 9/11. I have said so repeatededly. > What we have asked for is some actual data and analysis cites. All > that has been provided are some articles citing some investigations > and sucpicions, and several ambiguously defined "small trades." > And the video, from where this discussion started, clearly sliced and > diced the data. Thus a call for the actual data and analysis to see > upon what the claims of "unusual" are. My whole point has simple been, > that what "appears" unusual to the naive may be quite normal, aka > within the main body of a normal distribution. >
It's like the Belief in the Law of Big Numbers. For example, cancer clusters happen naturally amongst the human population. But because we can't understand why 20 kids in a town of, say, 2,000 people have a cancer that in the total population would only occur 1 out of every 5,000 people we automatically think there is some external environmental hazard that is causing. When in reality clusters, mathematically, happen naturally. It's like in Las Vegas where millions upon millions of throws of the dice happen every year in craps. Well, statistically, you're going to get some Schlub who will roll a Seven 10 times in a row and think some sort of miracle has happened because the odds are probably about a million to one of that happening. Well, this "cluster" will occur naturally when you have a sample of 10s of millions of throws of dice every year. A large trading of options may or may not be an indication of insider trading and has to be investigated further. To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
