--- In [email protected], anony_sleuth_ff <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Thanks for the link. I'll have to find the daily options data again. I didn't look at American, but at United. I looked only at 2001 up to that point and the volume for the week looked unusually high given no specific public news and it not being an expiration week. I didn't look at the calls as this guy did, which is interesting. I think to really figure this out, you need to do the volume statistics, but also see if there is some obvious fundamental reason or not for each of daily volume peaks. Also see if the volume surge is industry wide or company specific and why. For now I'm back to neutral on this topic! PS - it's really stupid to try to profit from inside knowledge about 9/11 by trading specific company options where you would really stand out - you should just short s&p futures where you get leverage but can hide in the large volume crowd. > --- In [email protected], "markmeredith2002" > <markmeredith@> wrote: > > > > The trading anomolies were in the options trading of the 2 airlines > > involved in 9/11 hijackings. The data is easily available - I do > > options trading for a living. I compared the options trading in the > > relevant airlines the prior week to 9/11 to the prior year and it was > > clearly statistically significant, no doubt about it, and it was all > > predicting a downward movement, ie, purchase of put options. > > > > Mark, I pulled together the data over a two year range prior to 9/11 > and I don't see anything that looks out of normal regularly occuring > trading ranges. I have yet to see how many standard deviations the > events are from the long-run mean, but you can see from the graphs, > its not going to be that high. > > Where are you finding "clearly statistically significant, no doubt > about it" anomolies? > > http://911-stock-anomolies.blogspot.com/ > > > AMR Stock price dropped about 5% in 10 trading days prior to 9/11, but > as one can see there six or more such drops of this size or greater > in a 1-2week period, over the prior two years. > > Stock volume hit 1.3 million shares in the 10 trading days prior to > 9/11, but this is just a bit above the 90 day moving average. There > are 6 other days in the prior two years where over 4 million shares > were traded. > > Put volume reached 2300 one day in the 10 trading days prior to 9/11-- > but this was reached on 11 days over the prior two years, on average > once every two months or so. It was hardly a rare event. On six days > in that two year range, over 5000 contracts were traded, double the > highest day in the 10 trading days prior to 9/11, once every 4 months. > Even twice the just-prior-to 9/11 level was hardly a rare event. > > Interestingly Call volume reached 2500 in the 10 trading days prior to > 9/11, higher than the peak level of puts during this period. > > The regular frequency of the peak Put volume in the 10 trading days > prior to 9/11 over the prior two-year, and more greater number of > Calls in that 10-day period, dampens the speculation that Put volume > was abnormal high, out of any sense of ordinary trading range. > > > Boeing: Stock price dropped about 5% in the 10 trading days to 9/11, > but as one can see there four or more days that such drops of this > size or greater in a 1-2week period, over the prior two years. > > Stock volume hit 8 million shares in the 10 trading days prior to > 9/11, but there are 13 other days in the prior two years where this > occurred -- on average once every couple ofmonths. Once almost double > that volume was achieved. Frequently, volume hit the 6 million share > range. > > Put volume reached 15,000 and 20,000 contracts in the 10 trading days > prior to 9/11-- but this was reached 12 and 6 times respectively over > the prior two years. > > Interestingly Call volume reached 15,000 and 25,000 contracts in the > 10 trading days prior to 9/11. 25,000 had been reached only 2 times > previously in the past two years. Thus, it appears Call trades were > more out of the ordinary than puts. > > The regular frequency of the peak Put volume in the 10 trading days > prior to 9/11 over the prior 2-year period, and the higher level -- > and more rare level of Calls in that week -- dampens the speculation > that Put volume was abnormal high, out of any sense of ordinary > trading range. > > United Airlines data is not accessable. Old symbol UAL was retired > when the firm came out of bankrupcy and new stock was issued as UAUA. > To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
