--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, "authfriend" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, "shempmcgurk" <shempmcgurk@> > wrote: > <snip> > > Sadly, your last few lines are correct: when we do find > > alternatives, their use will bring down the price of oil (of which > > there is about 600 years at current consumption rates left at known > > reserves) and people will continue to use oil. > > How Much Oil? Peak Oil > > The world has approximately 1 trillion barrels of conventional oil > left in the ground, and the nations of the world consume about 85 > million barrels of that oil every day.
Yeah, the operative word here is "conventional" which probably means highest grade sweet crude. But just in one province of one country -- Alberta in Canada -- the known reserves are 1.6 trillion barrels in the tar sands. So you've got world consumption right there for about 50 years just from KNOWN reserves in Alberta: http://ffden-2.phys.uaf.edu/102spring2002_Web_projects/M.Sexton/ ...and that's not considering what's in neighbouring Saskatchewan (they claim to have more than Alberta). Nor is it considering what's in neighbouring NorthWest Territories. Nor is it considering what's in Venezuela...they have tar sands reserves, they claim, MORE than Alberta (in addition to thei abundant sweet crude). But I hope I'm wrong. I hope YOU'RE right with your 1 trillion and 32 year figure, Judy, because the faster we run out of oil, the faster we'll develop cleaner alternatives. Indeed, that's why I have written here that the best thing that can happen to us is a $5.00 a gallon price at the pump. There's no oil crisis, just an intelligence crisis. > > Here's a way to think about those numbers. 1 trillion barrels (at 42 > gallons per barrel) works out to about 38 cubic miles, which is the > volume of a cube about 3.4 miles on a side. That's enough to cover > New York City's 300 sq. mi. land area to a depth of an eighth of a > mile (a little more than the length of two football fields). That's > it. That's what's left. In the world. > > At present, the world's consuming almost 1.2 cubic miles per year, > and demand is growing by several percent a year. > > If all of that 38 cubic miles of oil could be pumped out of the > ground at today's rate, and if consumption stayed constant at today's > rate, the very last drop of conventional oil would be consumed 32 > years from now. (If consumption were to continue to grow at current > rates, the last drop of conventional oil would be consumed roughly a > decade sooner.) > > But 32 years from now isn't the only date that matters. Other dates > that matter are 1) when the world runs out of spare oil production > capacity, and 2) when world oil production passes its peak and begins > its inevitable and irreversible decline. The first of those dates has > already arrived, as signalled by rising prices. Many analysts believe > the second date, peak oil, is either already here, too, or is > imminent. > > When it becomes clear that production has peaked and is on an > irreversible downhill slope, when people wake up to the fact that > each year the world's going to produce less oil than it did the year > before forever it's suddenly going to feel like a very different > world. > > http://www.pastpeak.com/archives/2006/03/how_much_oil.htm > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> See what's inside the new Yahoo! Groups email. http://us.click.yahoo.com/2pRQfA/bOaOAA/yQLSAA/UlWolB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
