With a 5% additional rise in the next several weeks would, the index
would cross its long run (statistical) regression-based trendline,
that is, its movement would be indicative of a normal correction
towards equillibrium.
With a 20% additional rise of the index over the next 10 weeks or so,
the index would exceed its upper 1 standard deviation bound -- the
general boundary for deviations of the index from its long-run trend
line. This would be indicative of a possible SIGNIFICANT effect from
the course, and not simply the index following its long run trend,
with normal deviations.
Other indices that John Hagelin incorrectly cited as being in positive
directions, continued to erode.
July24-28, 2006 [and 3.5 Year] Change and --- Consistency with US
Positive Trends:
* S&P500 +3% [+50%] --- Consistent
* Gold + 7.9% [+100% ] --- Inconsistent
* Oil + 5.5% [+100%] --- Inconsistent
* Dollar -.6% [-16%] --- Inconsistent
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