--- In [email protected], new.morning <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > --- In [email protected], "sparaig" <sparaig@> wrote: > > > > > Even if the trend is positive in the long run, regression to the > mean predicts you're not going > > to be able to see a long-term trend until the long-term actually > happens. > > > Actually, proper use of good statistical methods can sort out if the > effect is "random" or statistically significant, correlative or causal. > > And even eyeballing trends can discount or disprove the theory. Thats > why I began graphing the effects on stocks, oil, dollar and gold in a > blog when the course began (though I need to update it). Things going > widely in the wrong direction would tend to discount the theory. As > gold, oil and the dollar did for the first few months. Now they have > all turned toards "socially positive" directions. > > And "when" the effect occurs is not clear from ME theory or the data. > The utopia course (I think it was that one) coincided with the largest > stock market crash since 29. >>>
I don't recall that was the case. I think you are thinking about the crash of 1987, at which time there was no big course going on as far as I know. Please get your facts straight in this discussion. The big courses of 7000 I believe were in 1983 qnd 1985???, and coincided with a stock market increase or at the very least ....no crash.(??). You or Bob or someone may be able to confirm/refute. I am really enjoying and excited by this discussion and the contributers to it, because .... IF ....a significant amount of pundits come.... THEN.... we may be able to discern the effects (or lack there-of). Lets keep this discussion as "Discerning ME" for a few weeks and see if they come.....and then what happens. OffWorld To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
