--- In [email protected], new.morning <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > --- In [email protected], "larry.potter" > <larry.potter@> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > > Not true. Current PE is around 40. Forward PE is about 35. > > > > a. Current PE is around 70, not sure how you got 40, > > There are lots of P/E's depending on time frame. > > You are using trailing 12 months (ttm), around 6.85. > > That clearly is rear view mirror given Googles growth rate. > > I used 06 calendar year estimate, 10.25 -- which is trailing 9 mo, > plus estimates for nexxt quarter. Which gives P/E of 48 based on > todays price. But given Google is up 60 points or so in the last few > days, I used a more concervative price -- since I think the current > rapic runup to 480 will correct a bit in the next week. So I said > "around 40". > > Forward estimates can be a bettr gauge, IMO, than TTM, for a fast > growing company like google. > > Anyway, there is no one correct number. One needs to know whats is > making up the one being used -- and apply it appropriately. I like ot > look at multiple numbers. >
Here's what I'm looking at: Google's market cap is $146 billion. Revenue on its last income statement was $8.21 billion...BUT net income available to common (shares) was $2.07 billion. So tell me: assuming it has as good as year as this most recent yearly report and it continues to have as good as this every year -- without any losses, mind you! -- for the next 73 years. Then and onl then will one recover one's money. Okay...I'm not factoring in the time value of money. Let's discount that annual $2 billion income at 5%...how many years will it take to recover the $146 billion? Well, the future value of an annual payment of $2 billion for 34 years at 5% will return you $146 billion. But, of course, I really should be doing the Present Value of $146 billion...what kind of annual payment would I get at a 5% return over, say, 100 years? $7.3 billion. And, by the way, it only has $9.8 billion in cash on its balance sheet. So I agree: Google is WAY overpriced...even if it were able to triple its income next year and continue along a profitable path for 50 years. > > > > > > b. Forward PE is usably not reliable. > > > > http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GOOG > > > > > > Did TM-Sidhis made you a better investor/trader? > > > For many years, I plunked all my savings regularly in the market -- > and was , part a fundamentals guy -- playing some stocks, part > "efficient-market hypothesis" guy, just putting money into indexes. In > retrospect, some things were "obvious" -- which may or may not have > been some insights from "the core". Hard to know. > > Now, I primarily do short term trading -- based on technicals. > Emotional or analytical attachment to a postion are deadly. So to the > extent that TM/sidhis have made me able to totally disengage from any > attachement to position in one moment, and embrace the exact opposite > in the next -- essentially to be fully in the moment with aboslutely > no attachement to one minute ago -- then I suppose TM/sidhis have had > value for trading. > > Also, a "prolonged" high clarity of mind -- keeping 10-20 things in my > mind similtaneously -- for a sustained 6-7 hours, plus the ability to > focus 200% for 6-7 hours straight -- not an easy chore -- but > valuable if not necessary -- I think are strengthened with some inner > practice. > To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
