--- In [email protected], TurquoiseB <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > The real problem with the study is the design itself. > > > If it had a better design than a simple pre-post > > > (which makes no sense for research of this sort) non > > > of these question would be discussed. > > > > Are you saying the 36-hour hike in the murder rate > > *was* an anomaly and that it *was* legitimate not > > to take it into account? > > Isn't discounting a large surge in the murder rate during > the period that crime was being measured
It was not "a large surge in the murder rate during the period that crime was being measured." It was a spike occurring during a 36-hour segment of that period (as I said). The immediately following week, while the course was still going on, there were far *fewer* murders than normal, so the average number of murders per week over the duration of the course remained the same as usual. > a lot like saying: > > "The IA course has successfully created a lasting state of > peace, worldwide. We have not counted Iraq, Afghanistan, > Darfur, Chad, Sudan, Western Sahara, Somalia, Nigeria, and > Chechnya because they are anomalies." Even overlooking the fact that certain kinds of anomalies are, indeed, statistically insignificant (as the TM researcher new morning cited who was defending the study pointed out, this was such a case, given the small total number of murders in proportion to the *much* larger total number of violent crimes whose rate was being studied), no, the spike in the murder rate isn't at all like what you say. The D.C. study did not claim to have successfully eliminated violent crime in D.C. on a permanent basis; it claimed to have been responsible for a temporary overall decline in the total number of incidents of violent crime compared to what would have been expected for that period if the course had not taken place, and it *did* count the spike in the number of murders per week. The claim is that the spike, given the very small percentage of incidents of violent crime that murders always represent (there are over 10 times fewer murders than there are assaults), was not significant with regard to the overall decline in the number of violent crimes during the study period. This was in response to the ignorant claim by a critic that the spike completely invalidated the results of the study.
