--- In [email protected], new.morning <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > --- In [email protected], "sparaig" <sparaig@> wrote: > > > > > And the comment, "this is precisely the type of sporadic fluctuation > > > one must account for when total numbers are small." Exlusion is a > > > major way of "account[ing] for" such outliers. > > > > > > It was NOT excluded from the data. The weekly AVERAGE was the weekly > average with no > > data excluded. The SIGNIFICANCE of the outlier was dismissed because > it was only one > > data point amongst many and wasn't repeated and in fact was reversed > the next week (20 > > one week and 4 the next). > > See footnote 3. > > 3. After removing the outlier of June 22, Poisson regression > analysis indicated there was no significant difference in the level of > homicides in June and July 1993 from the remainder of the year. >
Ah you're right. Interesting that something that changed the average so slightly over a 2- week period would have a significant effect. It suggests that the murder-rate trended upward slightly even without the outler. > -- > This implies that WITH the outlier included, there WAS a significant > difference [higher] in the level of homicides in June and July 1993 > from the remainder of the year. > > And at best, the ME had no effect on murders. At worst, it increases > them -- assuming ME is causal. So it would appear, ME is > "crime-stopper light". Works best, thjough modestly, on lighter-weight > crimes I guess. And even then, its not a huge decrease. I wonder if > SSRS or AMMA can provide a heavy duty crime fighting effect. :) > > By the way, I assume each diamond on chart II is one week. If so, > there was a sizable drop in HRA crimes in week 9 and 10, AFTER the > course. Which sort of disturbs the immediadiacy of the ME and that > "This shows that usually the violent crime levels were directly > proportional to temperature and therefore that violent crime could > be accurately predicted from the previous pattern in the data." > > Of course you could postulate a lag effect -- which I have for the > financial markets impacts -- but then you have to discount the drops > in weeks 1 and 2. Which occurred by the way, just after a large spike > pre-course. So much for very strong temperature correlated crime trends. >
