frank wrote:
On 12/15/2011 08:02 AM, Casey Ransberger wrote:
Hypothesis: Mainstream software slows down at a rate slightly less than
mainstream hardware speeds up.
Hmmm, seems like a more optimistic Version of Wirth's law (yes, Niklaus):
"Software is getting slower more rapidly than hardware becomes faster."
Frank
There's also Nathan Myhrvold's four Laws of Software: (
http://www.codinghorror.com/blog/2006/09/software-its-a-gas.html ,
http://blogs.msdn.com/b/larryosterman/archive/2005/06/17/430215.aspx ).
1) Software is a gas: Software always expands to fit whatever container
it is stored in.
2) Software grows until it becomes limited by Moore's Law: The initial
growth of software is rapid, like gas expanding, but is inevitably
limited by the rate of increase in hardware speed.
3) Software growth makes Moore's Law possible: People buy new hardware
because the software requires it.
4) Software is only limited by human ambition and expectation: We'll
always find new algorithms, new applications, and new users.
These are interesting for several reasons. One is that Nathan doesn't
only describe the phenomena, but also a possible explanation for it.
Besides, now that it seems Moore's Law doesn't hold anymore, what will
happen? Will software bloat end? Will we focus again in efficiency and
simplicity? Will this make projects like FONC and Cuis relevant to
mainstream?
WRT law 3), we already see the change. Some years ago, computers were
advertised only in terms of speed. Now they make people want new, slower
computers (iPads and such). Regular PCs, even if much faster, are not
"fancy" anymore.
Cheers,
Juan Vuletich
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