Not quite, unfortunately. EpiSims, and other similar ABMs can all too easily be used to identify weaknesses and potential exploits of social infrastructures. We did studies for the US DHS that demonstrated exactly this a couple of years ago when I still worked at LANL. One example was when we simulated the release of a weaponized aerosol pneumonic plague disease agent in a certain busy subway station during a simulated rush hour in a simulated Chicago with a simulated population of 6.2 million people...
--Doug
On 8/9/06, Phil Henshaw <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Those who want to use the tools of systems inquiry for secretly generating new kinds of weapons for central authorities to interfere with what interests them, won't actually learn much and will cause great harm.
Phil Henshaw ¸¸¸¸.·´ ¯ `·.¸¸¸¸
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680 Ft. Washington Ave
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tel: 212-795-4844
e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
explorations: www.synapse9.com-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto: [EMAIL PROTECTED]] On Behalf Of Douglas Roberts
Sent: Tuesday, August 08, 2006 9:40 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Simulation and policy-makingRe: simulation and policy-making, a project that my group is working on at the request of the current Washington administration is helping to do just that. At the request of a consortium of representatives from the White House, Dept of Treasury, DHS, Dept. of State, and a few other cabinet-level political types, we have run numerous simulation experimental designs to establish the bounds of the effectiveness of various intervention strategies for containing an H5N1 pandemic, should it occur in the US. We are using three simulation codes: EpiSims, Epicast, and one from the Imperial College in the UK. The name of the project is "Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study" (MIDAS), and it is funded by NIH. See
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/press/releases/press02202006.html and
http://usinfo.state.gov/gi/Archive/2005/Aug/08-339612.html
or do a google search on "MIDAS bird flu policy" for more info.
--Doug
On 8/8/06, Robert Holmes <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:Oh I thank RAND are probably plenty ambitious in what they simulate for the US govt. Just check out their research areas: http://www.rand.org/research_areas/
Robert
On 8/8/06, [EMAIL PROTECTED] < [EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:Quoting Robert Holmes <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
> So if 'valid' simulations are being used to give the 'wrong' answers, what
> does that tell us about simulation? Is there ever any hope of objectivity
> (I'll give away the answer to that: no) or do all social simulations -
> political or economic - inevitably reflect the prejudices of their author or
> funder?
Validated simulations, by definition, reproduce something that the authors (or
funders) deem relevant as a performance metric. But that's not a problem with
models or simulations, assuming the metrics are documented. If the authors or
funders are prone to choosing easy, low dimensional things to fit, they just
need to be more ambitious.
============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
--
Doug Roberts, RTI International
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell
============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
--
Doug Roberts, RTI International
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
