Yes, that's well argued Ian and makes sense to me (Marcus, your
thoughts?). I have a lingering intuitive sense that there is still
some analog-worthy insight available; perhaps it's this:
If truly catastrophic climate change could result (with some non-zero
probability) in a truly inhospitable world, or even the extinction of
homo sapiens, does its avoidance constitute something approaching
"infinite" value to us as a species?
db
On Aug 14, 2007, at 5:01 AM, Ian P. Cook wrote:
I guess I'd seen Marcus' point as demonstrating why Pascal's wager
wasn't at all applicable. As I understand it, the wager is entirely
dependent on the payoff to believing in God's existence (and God
existing) being infinite. It's the only way it totally dominates
all other actions (vs non belief whether God does or does not
exist, that is). Otherwise it's just a cost-benefit calculation.
And while we can certainly talk about the benefits of acting in
regards to climate change now even if the change isn't primarily
anthropogenic vs non-action when it is, the only way to make the
analogy, I would think, is to suggest that action now has an
infinite payoff. The trouble with that, though, is that it means we
should accept ANY further wager that might result in the outcome
with the infinite payoff being realized. One should, it seems, be
willing to take my wager on whether or not I can personally reverse
climate change in exchange for all your wealth. Whether or not I
could do it, there just might be a non-zero subjective probability
that I COULD, which means you should take the bet -- since the
expected payoff is still infinite -- and hand over everything. In
terms of Pascal's wager, that is the argument for doubters: if you
are even willing to entertain a tiny belief that there is some non-
zero probability that God exists, you should still pray/become a
"believer". No matter the personal effort and cost of belief, there
is no way it will surpass the expected value of the bet. This
doesn't work if the payoff isn't infinite, since some
countervailing return to tip things back towards the non-believer
side.
dba | David Breecker Associates, Inc.
Santa Fe: 505-690-2335
Abiquiu: 505-685-4891
www.BreeckerAssociates.com
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