Let me add to the mix a book that was published more than fifty years
ago by the social psychologist, Leon Festinger, called "When Prophecy
Fails." Festinger was permitted to observe a doomsday cult (he told
them who he was, and why he was there, and still they welcomed him)
which believed that the world was coming to an end on a given date.
Date came and went, no end of world. Did the cultists desert their
cult? No, they told him they'd misinterpreted the signs, and that the
end of the world would come on a later, though imminent, date. Lather,
rinse, repeat. Certain members fell away after a while, but a solid
core (the base?) kept on believing. Festinger had some interesting
theories about cognitive dissonance and the persistence of belief in
the face of contrary evidence. I've thought of this book often the
last few months.
PMcC
On Nov 1, 2008, at 4:53 PM, Douglas Roberts wrote:
Here you go, Owen. I propose this example of a particular class of
social dynamic to used as a case study for developing science-based
explanations for human behavior patterns, rather than religious ones.
I believe there are possibilities with the first and second categories
that you suggest below, and particularly the Central Limit Theorem.
This is an especially interesting study candidate, seeing how the many
parts of the rest of the world are so *hugely* for stoning. What's
different about us? And don't tell me Muslims are smarter than us,
they aren't. Different, yes.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27484976/
--Doug
PS: No ranting about my bad spelling, please...
On Fri, Oct 31, 2008 at 10:30 PM, Owen Densmore <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
wrote:
People: I'm thinking Freakonomics here. Statistics. Human behavior
patterns. You know, Science!
Thus far I've heard only rants on religion, stupidity, and probably
bad spelling.
Is there *any* reason for the close vote (especially in the 2000
2004 2008 elections).
Here are a few possibilities:
- Parties form attractors.
- Classism.
- Single Issue voters.
- Marketing to a tie.
- The Central Limit Theorem.
This is especially interesting seeing how the rest of the world is
so *hugely* for Obama. What's different about us? And don't tell me
Europeans are smarter than us, they aren't. Different, yes. But
they elect assholes as often as we do.
I heard an interesting talk about how historians look at this:
http://radioopensource.org/a-longer-view-of-2008-historian-gordon-
wood/
One of his points is that: "I think that all of these candidates
will find that they have been carried along by forces that they can
scarcely understand."
-- Owen
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"It appears to me impossible that I should cease to exist, or that this
active, restless spirit, equally alive to joy and sorrow, should only
be organized dust."
Mary Wollstonecraft
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