Tom,
Some of us look to both the patterns of the past and a subjective belief
about the uncertain future when making decisions. And sometimes the way
we interpret past patterns is as subjective as our anticipation of the
future. Why set up a non existent conflict?
O
Tom Johnson wrote:
A sidebar conversation regarding the "reality" of models
'The story that I have to tell is marked all the way through by a
persistent tension between those who assert that the best decisions
are based on quantification and numbers, determined by the patterns of
the past, and those who base their decisions on more subjective
degrees of belief about the uncertain future. This is a controversy
that has never been resolved.'
— FROM THE INTRODUCTION TO ''AGAINST THE GODS: THE REMARKABLE STORY OF
RISK,'' BY PETER L. BERNSTEIN
See
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/04/magazine/04risk-t.html?_r=1&ref=magazine
<http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/04/magazine/04risk-t.html?_r=1&ref=magazine>
-tj
--
==========================================
J. T. Johnson
Institute for Analytic Journalism -- Santa Fe, NM USA
www.analyticjournalism.com <http://www.analyticjournalism.com>
505.577.6482(c) 505.473.9646(h)
http://www.jtjohnson.com [email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>
"You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the
existing model obsolete."
-- Buckminster Fuller
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FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
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--
Orlando Leibovitz
[email protected]
www.orlandoleibovitz.com
Studio Telephone: 505-820-6183
============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
