On Wed, Oct 13, 2010 at 4:53 PM, Merle Lefkoff <[email protected]> wrote:
> Merle Lefkoff wrote: > > [snip] Even so-called "experts" are hard-wired for "loss aversion". They > are likely to form their predictions based on how recently they predicted > wrongly and NOT on the statistics they've studied. Well, the point in Gladwell's book was that a LOT of learning and experience is built up, so that predictions or assessments, etc., become immediate, knee-jerk reactions. The processes that inform such decisions occur below the level of consciousness, but nevertheless require years of study. So it's not just statistics that are studied, but rather thousands and thousands of instances of learning that are remembered, and thus aggregated below conscious awareness. Even though the process of training one's brain for many different examples requires conscious thought and reflection, the end result becomes a reflexive action. -Ted
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