Russ, The uncertainty arguments definitely have merit. Overly-confident people spend money like crazy and keep very little savings (in more sane times they were called "manic", now they are called "middle class"). Even mildly-worried people spend carefully and have savings (in more sane times they were called "prudent", now they are called "the people killing the economy" or "unAmerican"). If you measure the health of the economy based on the number of times the same dollar changes hands, then the more confident people are, the better the economy is doing. Ditto if you measure the health of the economy based on stock prices. The problem is that it is a pretty weird numbers game. "Bubble" used to be the word we used to indicate that values were out of whack, and that something was fundamentally wrong. Now "bubble" is the word we use to refer to the good times we wish we were in again.
So... If you think the economy should be where it was during the bubble, then indeed people's otherwise totally reasonable seeming uncertainty is "a problem." :- ) Eric On Mon, Jun 20, 2011 01:39 PM, Russ Abbott <russ.abb...@gmail.com> wrote: >> >I'm, pretty skeptical about the uncertainty argument. That seems to me to be a Republican ploy to argue for lower taxes, which in their view is the solution no matter what the problem is. For the most part companies aren't hiring or adding new production capacity because there isn't the demand to justify it. >> >> >> > >>But there are some things that can be done. Here are some very ideas that Bill Clinton is <http://www.newsweek.com/2011/06/19/it-s-still-the-economy-stupid.html?om_rid=NsjYaG&om_mid=_BN-tYsB8bvt0mT>. We miss him as president. > >> > >-- Russ Abbott >_____________________________________________> > > Professor, Computer Science > California State University, Los Angeles > > Google voice: 747-999-5105 > blog: <http://russabbott.blogspot.com/> > > > vita: <http://sites.google.com/site/russabbott/> >_____________________________________________ > > > > > > > >>On Mon, Jun 20, 2011 at 9:08 AM, Owen Densmore <<#>> wrote: > > >Tom Friedman's Op Ed ><http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/12/opinion/12friedman.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss> > > >He starts with shocking mortgage statistics, but then discusses > >unemployment and its causes via this report: ><http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/us_jobs/index.asp> > > >Quote: McKinsey Global Institute released a long study of the > >structural issues ailing the U.S. job market, entitled: “An Economy > >That Works: Job Creation and America’s Future.” It begins: “Only in > >the most optimistic scenario will the United States return to full > >employment before 2020. Achieving this outcome will require sustained > >demand growth, rising U.S. competitiveness in the global economy and > >better matching of U.S. workers to jobs.” > > >Interestingly enough, they still feel education is important but > >stress areas of current need. > > >BTW: The tech bubble folks are afraid of is likely NOT to be one. Marc > >Andreessen (admittedly a techie) has compiled P/E ratios of the new > >tech market and shows them to be well under traditional values. They'd > >please any conservative investor. > > >Tom is concerned about the Uncertainty Tax .. our loss of production > >due to fear of downturn unknowns, but ends: Any good news? Yes, U.S. > >corporations are getting so productive and sitting on so much cash, > >just a few big, smart, bipartisan decisions by Congress on taxes and > >spending (and mortgages) and I think this whole economy starts to > >improve again. Workers with skills will be the first to be hired. > > > -- Owen > > >============================================================ > >FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > >Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > >lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at <http://www.friam.org> > > > > > > > ============================================================ >FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > Eric Charles Professional Student and Assistant Professor of Psychology Penn State University Altoona, PA 16601
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