Steve, this is a comprehensive resource. It is somewhat reassuring that the general shapes and inflection points of the curves roughly match the WTA market graph.
And disappointing as well, in its predictions that very nearly exactly half of our fine fellow American citizens are apparently planning to vote for an idiot who has "faith" that god lives on a crystal planet named Kolob. And super-power skivvies. And NY state golden plates. And moronic special delivery of magic glasses for translating "Egyptian Hieroglyphics". And cursed sub-humans of color. Etc. --Doug On Mon, Nov 5, 2012 at 12:52 PM, Steve Smith <[email protected]> wrote: > Doug - > > I'm going to be so glad when tomorrow is over. Either totally disgusted > and glad, or just normal cynical disgusted and glad. But really glad. > > And me, I'm just getting wound up! > > Getting a little (morbidly?) fascinated by the prediction markets. > > http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/oct-23-the-virtues-and-vices-of-election-prediction-markets/ > > Once the odds shift a little away from the middle in a winner-takes-all > situation, it seems like the markets would exaggerate the split... > > The Iowa Markets are a "toy" market where it is *real* money, but not REAL > MONEY being layed down. But even with REAL MONEY on the line, there seems > to be some natural biases. Will people bet opposite their vote? > (otherwise) Fiscally Responsible Republicans seem likely to keep their > money on Mitt as a token show of support even if they (must?) know they are > going to lose it? Nate Silver's reference to Favourite-longshot > bias<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias>helped resolve some > of the paradox I was feeling. > > I'm curious what this group thinks about these prediction markets? > > 1. Are they useful? > 2. Are they unethical? > 1. in Politics? > 2. in Horrific Events? > 3. Are they biased when US Citizens are presumably prohibited from > using them? > > If I were an efficient markets purist, I might believe that they would be > extremely accurate and unbiased, and over time perhaps they will become so, > but while still young, there will continue to be "bargains to be had" or > "fools to be fleeced", depending on how you look at it. > > - Steve > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > -- Doug Roberts [email protected] [email protected] http://parrot-farm.net/Second-Cousins <http://parrot-farm.net/Second-Cousins> 505-455-7333 - Office 505-670-8195 - Cell
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
