Yes, exactly. > 1.8 million people at a 1% fatality rate.
That’s what you get in countries that can give the best of their health service to patients who get very sick. Italy’s death rate is currently around 10%. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ <https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/> So multiply 1.8 million by 10x. There may be several factors that contribute to the worse patient profile in Italy, but certainly a large part of it is just overwhelming their capacity. I was glad Roger forwarded the Emily Landon segment. Sanjay Gupta did a similarly good one on Colbert last week. This idea that we have responsibilities to each other was a prominent part of his overall message, and the one that I have wished to hear put forward more often. Eric > On Mar 21, 2020, at 11:55 PM, Marcus Daniels <[email protected]> wrote: > > Gillian writes: > > "One side of that is you have a higher risk getting hit by a car than not > making it through this, what ever it is. " > > In 2018 in Italy, there were 3,325 fatalities from road accidents.[1] There > have been 4,032 fatalities from COVID-19 so far. The governor of California > announced that 56% of the state could contract the virus.[2] Extrapolating > that to the whole country, an uncontrolled outbreak would kill about 1.8 > million people at a 1% fatality rate. There were 33,654 road fatalities in > the United States in 2018. > Stay at home. > > Marcus > > [1] > https://www.statista.com/statistics/437928/number-of-road-deaths-in-italy/ > <https://www.statista.com/statistics/437928/number-of-road-deaths-in-italy/> > [2] https://abc7news.com/6029302/ <https://abc7news.com/6029302/> > [3] https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state-by-state > <https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state-by-state> > > > From: Friam <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> on > behalf of Gillian Densmore <[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>> > Sent: Saturday, March 21, 2020 6:53 AM > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation > > Mmm. Well. That is true our medical system is a fragile mess as is. My > concern that I realize is a pretty unpopular opinion is a total lack of > perspective. One side of that is you have a higher risk getting hit by a car > than not making it through this, what ever it is. I gather the real issue > isn't that, it's people who for what ever reason don't quite stay at some dry > caugh cold, nasty flue like stage but then also get just nastily congested > lungs that need sterrioids and oxygen. > And all of that on top of a surreal amount of hyping up the negative and > turning it into a WWF style match from media. "PANDEMIC 2000 (PANDEMIC, DEMIC > EPIDEMIC MOOONSTER DEMIC RACING 2020!!! ALL THE...SAME SOUND BYTES NOW WITH > MORE COWBELL!!!" I don't know if that'll read well in text. Anyone that was > a kid of the 80s(us) and they'd have this truck rally adds on Saturdays and > Sometimes Sundays. I imagine how that'd sound with this Max-Hendroomy thing > of turning this epidemic into something like that. As if it's a 80s WWF > wrestling match > > But then also the scientists I don't think are saying lock yourself > inside.(yet) Pretty disturbing to call 'Eh well try to avoid people' as > Social Distancing. > > On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 11:49 PM Marcus Daniels <[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: > > It’s not about stalling for a treatment, it is to pace the hospital arrivals. > >> On Mar 20, 2020, at 10:44 PM, Gillian Densmore <[email protected] >> <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: >> >> >> fuck "social distancing" this "shelter in place" shit has the assumption >> that we'll pull a rabbit out of our ass in 2-3 months tops. When in the >> history of medicine has that ever happend? I don't want people hurt by it. >> Drumming up more hysteria than the news already does isn't helping matters >> either. >> >> >> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 5:01 PM Merle Lefkoff <[email protected] >> <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: >> Below is information I just saw from the Center for American Progress on >> strategies to insure the election process can move forward. This is in >> answer to Nick's (and my) concern. >> >> Expand opportunities for people to vote from home or at quarantine locations >> States should think seriously about adopting all vote-by-mail >> <https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/all-mail-elections.aspx> >> elections with vote centers or other in-person options for people who >> prefer or need them. States such as Colorado, Oregon, and Washington have >> already implemented all-mail elections with great success, and Hawaii will >> begin implementing >> <https://elections.hawaii.gov/voters/hawaii-votes-by-mail/> all-mail voting >> during the 2020 elections. Another option is to adopt no-excuse absentee >> voting >> <https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/absentee-and-early-voting.aspx> >> and extend deadlines for requesting absentee ballots. A handful of states >> have permanent absentee voting >> <https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/10/21/for-many-americans-election-day-is-already-here/>lists, >> whereby every registered voter who signs up receives an absentee ballot >> each election. As a precaution for upcoming elections, jurisdictions should >> automatically mail >> <https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/capitol-ideas/mc-nws-pa-coronavirus-primary-election-mail-voting-20200312-rs7mnligozbv3f6m2wlrvr37ny-story.html>a >> ballot to each registered voter well in advance of voting periods. Voters >> should be able to return their ballots by mail or by dropping their voted >> ballot off at conveniently located secure drop boxes or at drive-up, >> drop-off locations. Ballot envelopes should be self-sealing to protect >> <https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/election-polling-locations.html> >> the health and safety of election workers who handle absentee ballots. All >> absentee ballots postmarked on or before Election Day must be counted even >> if they are ultimately received days later due to postal service delays. >> >> >> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 1:56 PM Marcus Daniels <[email protected] >> <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: >> I thought this was kind of interesting. >> >> https://us.dantelabs.com/pages/coronavirus >> <https://us.dantelabs.com/pages/coronavirus> >> >> If they were doing something like this, might be able to collect both the >> viral and human data from one sample: >> >> https://www.illumina.com/content/dam/illumina-marketing/documents/products/appnotes/ngs-coronavirus-app-note-1270-2020-001.pdf >> >> <https://www.illumina.com/content/dam/illumina-marketing/documents/products/appnotes/ngs-coronavirus-app-note-1270-2020-001.pdf> >> >> >> From: Friam <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> >> on behalf of Frank Wimberly <[email protected] >> <mailto:[email protected]>> >> Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group >> <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> >> Date: Friday, March 20, 2020 at 12:02 PM >> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected] >> <mailto:[email protected]>> >> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation >> >> Don't go to sleep, please >> >> I think our institutions are more robust and durable than you do. >> >> Frank >> --- >> Frank C. Wimberly >> 505 670-9918 >> Santa Fe, NM >> >> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:55 PM <[email protected] >> <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: >> Hi, Y’all, >> >> Just got done with the FRIAM ZOOM session, which seemed to divide into two >> sessions, equally interesting, but quite different. Session one was an >> expert discussion of the complexity dynamics of the pandemic and how >> technology could be used to maximize privacy while slowing transmission. >> Session two was an exploration of what it is actually going to be like to >> live through the next six months, and what, if anything we should be doing, >> psychologically and practically, to prepare ourselves for it. >> >> Most riveting quote of the day, perhaps more riveting because it was so >> paradoxical: >> >> “One thing you better have in mind as you plunge into a phase transition is >> a clear idea of how you want the world to look like after you come through >> it.” >> >> Most actionable suggestion of the day: >> >> Insist by every means possible that local and state election officials begin >> to plan (and practice in the primaries) a non-in-person voting system that >> will be regarded as legitimate by the general public. >> >> Personally, speaking for myself, I was left with one meta-question: >> >> How much time do we devote to trying to imagine the unimaginable. One the >> one hand, it seems like we have to; on the otherhand, trying to do it is so >> scarey that it runs the risk of bringing all thought to a stop. >> >> I know how to handle it individually: If I start to panic, I just climb >> into bed, imagine that I am never going to wake up, and go to sleep. But >> conversation-wise, I am not so sure. Perhaps agree to devote small portion >> of the conversation to catastrophic thinking, with a clear boundary? >> Assuming we can do that, here is my suggestion for a catastrophic >> discussion: >> >> Worse than the worst predictions for the virus acting alone, are the >> consequences of the virus acting in concert with a total collapse of our >> institututions, food production, distributution, our elections, public >> order, etc. (e.g., Who is going to plant and pick the crops if the borders >> are closed? Draft out-of-school college students?) Our country is run by a >> gerontocracy, which, being human, will try above all to protect themselves. >> But they will mosty fail, in any case, because they are the most >> vulnerable. What if, in their vain attempt to protect themselves, they bring >> down the whole? >> >> Ok. Now I am going to bed. >> >> Nick >> >> Nicholas Thompson >> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology >> Clark University >> [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> >> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ >> <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> >> >> >> From: Friam <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> >> On Behalf Of Jon Zingale >> Sent: Friday, March 20, 2020 12:02 PM >> To: [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> >> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Outbreak Simulation >> >> At home, we are discussing the effect of the virus and the effect >> of social distancing on individuals that rely on soup kitchens. >> What strategies can Friam produce for feeding these people >> that is consistent with the social distancing strategy? >> For bonus points, please justify posted strategies with a model, >> or simulation. >> >> Jon >> ============================================================ >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> <http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com> >> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/> >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> <http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/> by Dr. Strangelove >> ============================================================ >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> <http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com> >> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/> >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> <http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/> by Dr. Strangelove >> >> >> -- >> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D. >> President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy >> emergentdiplomacy.org <http://emergentdiplomacy.org/> >> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA >> [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> >> mobile: (303) 859-5609 >> skype: merle.lelfkoff2 >> twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff >> ============================================================ >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> <http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com> >> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/> >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> <http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/> by Dr. Strangelove >> ============================================================ >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> <http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com> >> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/> >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> <http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/> by Dr. Strangelove > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > <http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com> > archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/> > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > <http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/> by Dr. Strangelove > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > <http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com> > archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/> > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > <http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/> by Dr. Strangelove
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