Marcus -
I believe that Andrew Niccol DID imagine something like that:
I wish I had a pithy preamble for this dystopian BioPunk reference, but
perhaps it speaks for itself?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gattaca
- Steve
> Steve writes:
>
> < The whole world is responding to what is *roughly* the same virus
> with *roughly* what is the same human phenotype/metabolism in a myriad
> of *roughly* the same modes of human organization. >
>
> There are hundreds of common HLA alleles across humans. In a diverse
> country like the US, with hundreds of thousands of positive cases and
> tens of thousands of deaths the hundreds of alleles would be well
> sampled. Too bad our medical surveillance is so bad, and made worse
> by the moron. Imagine if everyone had full genome sequencing and
> every viral sample was deep sequenced.
>
> Marcus
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> *From:* Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> on behalf of Steven A Smith
> <sasm...@swcp.com>
> *Sent:* Sunday, April 19, 2020 10:11 AM
> *To:* friam@redfish.com <friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why
>
>
>> One way to address the N/A issue is to repeatedly perturb the real-world
>> system so as to elicit those correlations. When that is practical..
>
> We are, in a time of real-world system perturbation, right now. The
> whole world is responding to what is *roughly* the same virus with
> *roughly* what is the same human phenotype/metabolism in a myriad of
> *roughly* the same modes of human organization. This IS a testbed of
> human (-system?) response to a widespread, somewhat invisible
> threat. From Wuhan to Singapore to Italy to Iran to Sweden to
> Germany to NYC to WA State to the Navajo Nation to Florida's beaches,
> this IS a huge coupled systems dynamics/agent-model executed in
> real-time by real-people with real casualties and real consequences.
>
> We are, to varying degrees (collectively) recording the results of
> these "experiments" and if we are lucky (or smart, or both) we will do
> some post-game analysis intended to understand more-better how best to
> (self-)organize around a (nearly) existential world-scale threat.
> And to the extent this is a game that will never end, we have to begin
> the analysis while we cope with it's consequences. Feels a bit like
> the models pof Physics Interreality.
>
> https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.75.057201
> <https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.75.057201>
>
> Hanging too aggressive of a model on this (or collecting the data
> against too premature of a model) will reduce the utility of such data
> gathering and analysis. Whatever the dual of overfitting a model
> is? Overmodeling? Premature Modeling?
>
> What I'm looking (askance) to(ward) Pearl for is a better way of
> rapidly constructing, maintaining, revising as generic of a model as
> possible in response to "this moment". Four months ago we should
> have been interested in models of how one limits a virus such as
> COVID19 getting a foothold in this country. One month ago we should
> have been interested in how one limits COVID19 (with new understanding
> of it's virility, it's fatality, it's symptoms, it's mode of spread)
> once it HAS a foothold, now we are faced with trying to understand
> how to cope with it once it is pervasive in our population whilst
> continuing/returning to "business as usual" and in another thread, I'm
> encouraging that we "try to plan/consider/think-about" what we want to
> do with this somewhat "blank slate" (our ass?) we are having handed
> to us.
>
> And how to think about this without premature modeling... what I think
> I was railing (whining/pushing-back) about with Dave on the Bellamyist
> thread earlier this morning.
>
> - Steve
>
>>> On Apr 19, 2020, at 8:33 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ <geprope...@gmail.com>
>>> <mailto:geprope...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>> Well, the argument I often end up making is that you can do a kind of face
>>> validation with the fake data. Show it to someone who's used to dealing
>>> with that sort of data and if the fake data looks a lot like the data they
>>> normally deal with, then maybe more data-taking isn't necessary. If it
>>> looks fake to the "expert", then more data-taking is definitely needed.
>>>
>>>> On 4/19/20 8:29 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>>>> I have a hard time with this as a way to extend data. If it is
>>>> high-dimensional it will be under-sampled. Seems better to me to measure
>>>> or simulate more so that the joint distribution can be realistic. And if
>>>> you can do that there is no reason to infer the joint distribution because
>>>> you *have* it.
>>>>
>>>>>> On Apr 19, 2020, at 8:18 AM, Frank Wimberly <wimber...@gmail.com>
>>>>>> <mailto:wimber...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> Going back and forth: If you infer the causal graph from observational
>>>>> data you can use that graph to simulate data with the same joint
>>>>> distribution as the original data.
>>> --
>>> ☣ uǝlƃ
>>>
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