You indeed are indeed correct, Tom. That is the fundamental question for Bayesian applications. For a time it was considered to be an impossible hurdle that blocked Bayesian statistical analysis. Today there are a variety of conceptualizations that have changed that view, and so Bayes Rules!
George Duncan Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University georgeduncanart.com See posts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram Land: (505) 983-6895 Mobile: (505) 469-4671 My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix order and luminous chaos. "Attempt what is not certain. Certainty may or may not come later. It may then be a valuable delusion." >From "Notes to myself on beginning a painting" by Richard Diebenkorn. "It's that knife-edge of uncertainty where we come alive to our truest power." Joanna Macy. On Thu, Apr 30, 2020 at 5:40 PM Tom Johnson <[email protected]> wrote: > Good explanation. But it always comes back to the basic question: What > are the methods and data informing our assumptions about prevalence, at > this moment, in a population? Or am I wrong? > Tom > > > ============================================ > Tom Johnson - [email protected] > Institute for Analytic Journalism -- Santa Fe, NM USA > 505.577.6482(c) 505.473.9646(h) > *NM Foundation for Open Government* <http://nmfog.org> > *Check out It's The People's Data > <https://www.facebook.com/pages/Its-The-Peoples-Data/1599854626919671>* > > ============================================ > > > On Wed, Apr 29, 2020 at 4:03 PM George Duncan <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Here's an easy numerical example of why conditional probabilities as >> employed in Bayes Rule are important: >> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5FfTjJtV3E&feature=share >> <https://nam05.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Dx5FfTjJtV3E%26feature%3Dshare&data=02%7C01%7Ckelsey%40edc.pitt.edu%7Cd4539c648e544adc9a3608d7ec422ca0%7C9ef9f489e0a04eeb87cc3a526112fd0d%7C1%7C1%7C637237641268432573&sdata=sSVCqTqIkvlnbjX%2BoUoUxdPdt%2FolTIHHw%2FZiJzCgCMk%3D&reserved=0> >> >> >> George Duncan >> Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University >> georgeduncanart.com >> See posts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram >> Land: (505) 983-6895 >> Mobile: (505) 469-4671 >> >> My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix order and >> luminous chaos. >> >> "Attempt what is not certain. Certainty may or may not come later. It may >> then be a valuable delusion." >> From "Notes to myself on beginning a painting" by Richard Diebenkorn. >> >> "It's that knife-edge of uncertainty where we come alive to our truest >> power." Joanna Macy. >> >> >> .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... >> .... . ... >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> > .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... > .... . ... > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >
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