Nick - https://rt.live/
helps to illustrate some of Rachel's hair-on-fire. NOT because the absolute numbers are (or will be) outrageous, but because the *rates* are high. Take a look at the states who have R0 > 1.0 ... all midwest-plains. If you have a small town with 0 cases, it is natural to not be "too worried" even if there are three or four small towns within 20 miles who have a case or two... their relative social distance from the international airport/high-density urban *hot spots* means they are *late* to the party AND the relatively small *absolute* numbers means their perception of the problem is lower. AND in fact, they might be able to tolerate higher rates BECAUSE of the perception. If 5 people in your community of 100 die of COVID19 maybe that is easier to accept than if 5000 out of your 100,000 die? I think these subtleties/subjectives that get lost in the raw statistics are important but I don't know how to quantify them off the top of my head. - Steve On 5/6/20 9:24 AM, [email protected] wrote: > > Hi, Everybody > > This article greatly puzzled me because it seemed to eviscerate it > self in the last few paragraphs. > > https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html > > > My main concern here is the degree to which I am being deluded by my > addiction to the Rachel Maddow Show. She is in HairOnFire mode about > an impending epidemic in the plains states. She is particularly > caustic about the bad judgement of plains states governors. But if > the times charts are right, one can see (sort of) why those governors > are not as alarmed as we smarty-pantses think they ought to be. There > aren’t that many people dying full stop, even tho people ARE dying of > covid. (Not to mention that most of the people who are dying of covid > are poorish people working in meet packing plants.) What is this New > Abnormal we seem to find ourselves in? > > N > > > .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... > .... . ... > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
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